South Africa Chatter

 Around two weeks ago in South Africa.....a bill passed which lays out the framework to 'grab' farmland, orchards and vineyards in the country....owned by whites, and to place them into the ownership of native blacks.

A done deal?  Not quiet yet....it has to pass via the National Council of Provinces (their version of the Senate).  

The basic deal?  They aren't saying 100-percent of the farmland will be taken, but when the order is given.....there will be no payment for the 'grab' (expropriation without compensation is in effect).  

For about five years, I've followed the talk, and while in South Africa....I had a conversation or two with locals about how this would work, and how it would fail.

First, most people believe there is a list floating around that notes the top one-hundred profitable farms, vineyards and orchards in the nation.....with those being the primary ones to be taken.  

The receiving parties?  You never hear much chatter about this but locals general believe it'll all be relatives or 'kids' of African National Congress party members.  It won't matter if they have a farming background or not.

It is my belief that the national and regional banks are in a state of fear of this moment arriving.....with various farmers having massive loans and the white farmers losing their property....immediately leaving the country.  The banks being stuck with losses?  More than likely.  The government grasping this?  No....don't anticipate that.

Those acquiring the vineyards and thinking their product can go right onto the world market, with the same label and name?  No.....don't count on that.  I expect several markets to force a new wine label name.  These new and incoming owners having any knowledge of the wine business?  No.....that's probably problem.

Farm equipment quietly exiting South Africa for Namibia? I would suspect right now.....tractor trailer rigs are taking assets across the border, and there will be a shortage on tractors for the incoming new owners.

All of this leading to a food shortage?  Yes.....without much doubt....for 2023, 2024 and 2025....there's going to be a shortage in the common goods you'd normally buy.

I would anticipate this farm grab to be described as a 5-star failure by the end of 2025.