First, there's no doubt that the fall 'invasion' in 2023 of Israel by Hamas....was dreamed up in Tehran....sponsored by the Iranians. Some might go and suggest the Russians wanted the Americans stuck in a difficult balancing act between the Ukraine and Israel.
This led to reaction that Hamas/the Iranians probably didn't expect....the total destruction agenda of the Gaza Strip. So the Hezbollah folks in Lebanon got dragged in, and they were next on the 'screwed-list'.....with Tehran now wondering how to get ahead. So the nuke-threat agenda got discussed again.
All of this led back to Israel discussing the end of the Iran regime...once and for all...something that Trump didn't want to really engage upon.
So we are at a end-point and I'd suggest three likely end-scenarios:
1. Mullahs kicked completely out, and the return of the 'King' (the son of the Shah). To be honest, if you open this up to the Saudis and most neighbors....it's not a bad situation.
2. Mullahs kicked out, but a new round of elections occur, and a new parliament elected....with no limits on party choices. This is the NO-KING scenario.
3. Mullahs stay but fairly limited on nuke energy...only under supervised control. Least likely successful long-term scenario.
The hinge to all of this? If you go and survey folks....somewhere between 60 and 80 percent of the public (depending on how you word the survey)....want the Mullahs gone. After that....it gets tricky about bringing the King back.
If the Mullahs left (in the 10,000 range minimum)....where exactly do they go? I don't think anyone (even Pakistan or Afghanistan) want them. Going to Russia? No way. Saudis? No freaking way.
The fact that something is going to occur...but only with Trump around to swing deals? Yeah, that's the odd part of the story.
1 comment:
What if...
What if the Iranian people have ZERO 'weapons of mass destruction'?
What if the Iranian people are like me, just want to be left alone?
What if MOSSAD -- those lovable goofballs -- are invading the Iranian people simply to destroy their central bank... a re-play of the central banks of the Libya and Iraq people?
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An aside:
Any time the jew is involved, I tend to imagine all the opposite scenarios, reversed from any of their paranoid wild-eyed claims.
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keyword : two weeks to flatten the curve
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