Monday, 7 May 2018

Explaining this Iran Thing

There are five observations that you can make about this 'amusing' crisis existing now with Iran, and this nuclear treaty that President Obama fixed up during his administration.

1.  Back when all this treaty business first started to get discussed....2014....oil pricing was near $90 a barrel.  Iran....desperate to recover in the economic world....had been isolated and suffering.  So various talks came up and opportunities were realized.  If they could just open this peace door (especially felt in 2014), then this vast oil income situation would come.

Sadly, by the last quarter of 2015, when the treaty framework was falling into place....oil had fallen to around $52 (more or less).  You go and look at 2011 to 2014....a $100 or more per barrel. 

What happened?  US fracking.  Everyone across the oil sector has suffered.  Presently?  In the $45 to $50 range. 

Iran desperately needs to see economic make the public happy (something that has lingered for two decades now).

2.  Everyone in Europe is poised to make money, once the treaty falls into place.  No one in Europe wants to deny the opportunity, period.

3.  Israel has done a fair amount of investigation and believes it's all a fraud.  Evidence?  It falls into the category of suggesting that Iran 'could' (not would) quickly revert the energy program into a weapon program.....beyond that nothing else.

4.  If the Iran government were a civilian-led situation....there might be more belief or trust.  The fact that it's entirely dominated by religious 'players'....leads one to wonder about stability.

5.  Finally, you come to this wild-card that one one seems to want to discuss....Saudi Arabia.  Basically, they are about one step away from starting their own nuclear program and this treaty probably would be enough to trigger that. Who would help them?  One can sit and ponder over that.  For Iran?'s an enormous problem.  If Saudi Arabia goes this a very short period of time....Iran would have to trip over the mess leading to weapons development. 

What happens here?  I suspect Trump will allow the treaty to go forward, with the warning to France, Germany and the EU....their respect will be lost once Iran crosses over some imaginary line.  Saudi Arabia will proceed with it's own nuclear program, and everyone will be sitting there and wondering how big a mess was avoiding the the cancellation of the treaty.  The cherry on this all leads back to the Obama Administration's efforts, and history would be very unkind on the problems it manufactured. 

Course, the other wild-card is the possibility of a coup in Iran, and some new leadership coming out of thin air. 

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