Sunday 31 December 2023

If A China Invasion Of Taiwan Took Place

 First, I don't see the naval power of China being capable enough to last more than two weeks, with probably half the 'fleet' sunk by that point.  I also think the quality of the ships and subs would be tested to a significant degree....proving build-effort was at the same level as these crappy apartment buildings throughout the country.

Second, with the combined power of Australia, Japan, and the US on the landscape....the threat would be finished by the 30th day.

Third, as for the trade-embargo likely to be put into force....China's economy would be fully destroyed at that point...giving rise to Vietnam, India and Malaysia being the giants of the region.

Fourth, as this 'war' ends....I expect a massive exodus of Chinese men and women....trying to find another land to live/work.

Fifth, Xi?  He'll be removed by some Chinese General, and the country will go into some serious chaos over the next year, with starvation and riots.

Sixth, Putin's only serious partnership gone?  Yeah, and that would trigger some commercial talk about the future of economics in Russia.  They needed someone with deep pockets to buy natural gas and oil....with China gone, the pockets are a problem.

Seventh....over five-million Chinese men/women entering the US within two years?  Yeah....all walking across the Mexico/US border.  If you think things are bad now....go imagine the Democratic Party trying to figure some 'game' to hook up with ex-Chinese folks.  

This is a scenario that you'd rather not see.  

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