Eight Humble Observations

 1.  The average IQ of a actual Somalia guy/gal....is 68 (taken from a 2002 study)....which is low enough to be considered for moderate intellectual disability (by Social Security).  On the plus-side?   You can perform repetitive jobs (folding laundry, packing boxes, simple assembly-line work, cleaning tables), or read at the 2nd grade level.  I need to state this as well....reading a digital clock is easy....analog clock reading would be difficult.

This is what the gov't folks signed off on, and introduced to Minnesota.

2.  Charay Smith just announced that she’s running for Congress in North Carolina.  In the announcement....she did some twerking...probably as a new Democratic new strategy.

3.  Its just odd....some Democrats selling me on the idea of narco-terrorists being just regular working-class folks.

This may take a while to accept.

4.  It just seems like we need a 100,000 man force to do audits....around the clock....coast to coast.

5.   Gavin Newsom is such a character....that I intently watch him every time he comes on TV....to watch his hand gestures, and his nonsense view of reality.

6.  I watched a interview of former New Zealand PM....Jacinda Ardern...who talked up this claim that within the next five years, the planet will be so warm that people will be dying from how hot it is.

I don't think she's ever hauled hay in Alabama in mid-July.

7.  2026 Toyota Stout chatter?  Base-model....now figured to be around $25,000.  Bare-bones type of truck.  

I'll predict it sets records.

8.  Something in the universe 'clicked'.....I now get the feeling that Democrats...are the champions of illegal aliens, rapists, murderers, sex traffickers and Venezuelan drug smugglers.

It's like a Twilight Zone episode.  

The Drug Cartel Boat Story

 Most drug cartel boats, particularly the high-speed vessels known as "go-fast boats" (including pangas, low-profile vessels, and similar designs used for smuggling cocaine and other narcotics across the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean), are equipped with multiple high-powered outboard motors (minimum of two...on up to five). 

These are typically gasoline-fueled engines from brands like Yamaha or Mercury, ranging from 200 to 350 horsepower each, often configured in multiples of 2–5 per boat to achieve speeds exceeding 50 knots (about 60 mph) while carrying heavy loads of up to several tons of drugs and fuel.

The outboards are mounted on the rear for easy maintenance, quick swaps, and high maneuverability. 

The Low-Profile Vessels (LPVs): 3 to 4 outboards on slender fiberglass hulls painted to blend with ocean waves, designed for radar evasion (e.g., a 2025 seizure off Central America featured four outboards on a 54-foot craft).

The Panga-Style Boats: Often 1–4 outboards added to fishing hulls for speed boosts (e.g., Venezuelan-linked skiffs with powerful outboards for short Caribbean hops).

Why Outboards?: They provide superior power-to-weight ratios for rapid acceleration, are commercially available (sourced via black-market channels from Japan and the U.S.), and can be jettisoned if needed to lighten the load during chases. Total horsepower often exceeds 1,000 HP per boat.

For context, while some advanced cartel vessels (like semi-submersible "narco-subs") use internal diesel inboards for longer, stealthier runs, these represent a minority of operations—outboards dominate the faster, more disposable "go-fast" fleet that handles the bulk of short- to medium-haul smuggling. Recent U.S. military strikes in 2025 targeted Venezuelan go-fasts with multiple outboards, underscoring their prevalence.

What does a high-powered outboard motors like the Yamaha F300 (300 HP) or Mercury Verado 350 (350 HP), commonly used on drug cartel go-fast boats, cost?  Well....$25,000 to $35,000 USD per engine. 

So if you figure the boat....the comm gear....the GPS gear, and three engines...you have in the range  of $150,000 spent. Five engines?  Up into the $220k or more.

What you pay the 'crew'?  A run is considered from Venezuela to the Caribbean Island region....where things are parted-up....some going on north to the US...some going to Europe. The master-of-the-boat usually gets $5k to $10k, per trip.  The crew makes $500 to $1000, per trip.  So up until this US 'tough-approach'....a junior player in this line of work...probably made eight to ten trips a month  (figure $4k minimum), and the master made $40,000 minimum, per month.

If you asked me on current 'wages'?  It's probably tripled in nature because of the Navy theat. 

I asked Grok on fuel required...for this 200-to-300 nautical mile run....with five engines....Total Fuel:  more or less....2,250 gallons (50 gph × 45 hours). This aligns with cartel vessels carrying 1,500–4,000 gallons in auxiliary tanks/drums for 300–500 nm ranges.

So if the Navy targets the vessel....that 2,000-plus gallons has a serious burn ratio.

Q-and-A

 1.  What happens to Gov Ron DeSantos after 5 Jan 2027 (his term in Florida ends)?

Well....I have this odd theory....that Speaker-of-the-House Johnson will go back to Rep-status, and DeSantos is brought in to be House Speaker (rules state....House Speaker is NOT required to be a Representative).

2. Is there any legit way to solve the mental health crisis?

Just hand each 'crazy' a certificate to say 'cured', and acknowledge fed-funding never cured any crisis.

3.  If you tossed in 500 pictures of drug-cartel boats and 500 fishing boat pictures....into a pile....out of a thousand people reviewing the pile....how many would get the right numbers?

100-percent....except with the blind folks, or cartel-paid-off politicians.

My Nashville Theory

 Final results on District 7 results in Tenn?  

Matt Van Epps, Republican, won with 96,988 votes (around 54.4-percent).

Aftyn Behn, Democrat, lost with roughly80,000 (45.1-percent).

The trouble in selling Behn? She became this oddball far-left character...who bluntly said...of Nashville and all of its character....she hated it.  In some way....she wanted to 'Californiaize' the city.

I asked Grok....how many Californians had relocated to the Nashville area (Greater-Nashville)....he responded around 100,000 since 2020. 

So I asked Grok....from data out there...is there a ratio of Republicans to Democrats....who moved into Nashville?  YES....5-to-1 Republicans over Dems.   So out of 100k....somewhere around 85k were leaning conservative-or-Republican.

This begs the question....so how did the radical Behn get pushed-up as a candidate?

I went back to view results since 2000 in District 7.  Oddly....Republicans typically always win....with the Democratic candidate usually always getting 80k-plus votes. Pratt (D) in 2024...did get 115k votes (still finishing 2nd place).

Yet...Behn...with all this extra funding/attention....still basically carved out the traditional end-result....35 to 45 percent of the local vote.

BS national attention?  Yeah.....the suggestion that Californians who moved in...threatened the 'character' of Nashville? Out of the 100k....there are probably 15,000 softcore/hardcore lefties in the mix, and determined to persuade 'change'. Well...it's not really working.

The only way to fix this....so Nashville is overwhelmingly left/far-left?  Haitians....you need 30,000 Haitians to be settled into Nashville.    

A Taxation Story

 Curious development....Washington State, facing a projected $16 billion budget shortfall over the next four years, has enacted comprehensive tax reforms during its 2025 legislative session to generate approximately $9 billion in new revenue through 2029. 

These changes, signed into law by Governor Bob Ferguson on May 20, 2025, focus on modernizing the tax code, shifting toward progressive structures, and increasing the burden on high-revenue businesses—particularly major companies like Amazon and Microsoft.

Based on chatter....there's probably forty companies....big-to-medium sized...viewing an exit....with Idaho, Texas, and Florida usually mentioned.

The big guys?   Amazon.com Inc. (Seattle, 1,541,000 employees),  Providence Health & Services (Renton, 120,000). Starbucks Corporation (Seattle, 381,000). Costco Wholesale Corporation, Issaquah, 316,000). Microsoft Corporation (Redmond, 221,000). Boeing Company (Arlington (corporate HQ), 60,244 (statewide).

My humble belief?  Around early spring....at least three announce a headquarters move by summer of 2026, and a break-up/downsizing/exit of the remaining parts of their organization. Twenty-plus companies will follow by the end of 2026.

A crappy profit year anyway?  That's really part of the 2026 landscape....with less tax revenue anyway.

The big 'gain'?   Texas.

The big 'loser'?  Washington state in early 2027....pleading for stability and recovery.  

The 'Art' of Surrendering

 If you were in a Venezuelan drug-cartel boat, and got 'hit' with a rocket....if you survived....and want 'help'.....you have to wave a white-flag, or raise your hands to surrender.

If you do anything else....it's not giving a hint of your intent.

I realize you may have various ideas of something different. But this is the time-honored procedure.

I might add....if this were a cocaine-boat....it's likely to have some firearms onboard, and after the rocket-explosion.....you might not be in a good state of mind.

What Is The End-Game Of The US-Venezuela Situation

 The US-Venezuela crisis has escalated dramatically since President Trump's inauguration in January 2025, building on longstanding tensions over Nicolás Maduro's disputed 2024 election victory, economic collapse, mass migration, and alleged narco-terrorism. 

No doubt....the US views Maduro's regime as illegitimate, a hub for drug cartels, a launching point for Tren de Aragua, and a vector for illegal immigration and fentanyl flows into the US. 

Just for the record....I seriously doubt that the fentanyl flow amounts to more than 5-percent of the product.

Invasion?  No.  Maduro is likely adding up his days.....looking at an exit, and various military folks reviewing their take-over chances.  The Tren de Aragua and cartel folks?  They need a phase II point.

What If Kamala Harris Had Shown Up On Joe Rogan's Show?

 About once a month....this idea pops up in my head.  I ponder over it for five minutes....then laugh for 20 seconds.

Joe laid out the welcome mat.....opened up a schedule, and went as far as he could. It was a no-go.

Why?  My belief goes to TWO things.

First, I think she did a healthy big dose of anxiety-pills throughout the day.....was never clear-headed (maybe for the whole four years of VP). In a hour-long conversation with Joe?  She would have said thirty-odd things....which Joe would react to.

Second....between Kam and her inside-circle....I think all of them saw Joe Rogan as a 2-star comedian, with zero talent to interview.   On interview skills?  Yeah...Joe simply knows how to carry a conversation....like you'd have on the porch for three hours....talking over 'Nam', beer, deer season, or Jesus-stories.

If Kam had shown up....without the medication?  Well....that's always something to wonder about.

Odd Story

Sarah Beckstrom, a 20-year-old member of the West Virginia National Guard, was shot in an ambush-style attack near Farragut Square in downtown Washington, D.C., at 2:15 PM on 26 November 2025. She died.

Someone around a day into this went to Google-search to see 'activity'....meaning someone doing a search on her name.

Well....around 11AM on 22 November 2025....someone did a search on her name....from Israel.  Four day and 3 hours....prior.

They saved the page and brought this up.....which in a matter of an hour or two....the history was deleted.

I paused over this.

Some suggest a conspiracy....where the dimwit-shooter was ordered in particular to kill her....but it makes little sense....how would the idiot know the patrol shift or area of DC where she would have been at 2PM?

Then I considered the movie Déjà Vu movie concept....which laid out some gov't ability to recall all past activity for seven days.....like a data stream.  

What if this were the reverse of Déjà Vu....forecasting a data stream that was four days ahead.

An odd conspiracy idea....lays out there for several decades.....Die Glocke (“The Bell”).  Allegedly a secret anti-gravity/time-travel device developed in Lower Silesia (now Poland) in 1943–45 under SS General Hans Kammler (who disappeared as the war ended).  

How the Glocke worked? The story goes....it created a torsion field that allowed limited time distortion or glimpses into the future.  No one says the amount of delay....it might be minutes, hours, days, weeks, or months.

Might someone or some group in Israel have the Glocke?  Unknown.

Its just odd....the female guardsman is dead  (the other survives), and someone in Israel had an interest in her name....prior to the death.

This Biden Auto-Pen Deal

 Based off yesterday's chatter....there's one single pardon of 'value' (Hunter's)....the rest appear null-and-void.

The key part to this story? From day one on....the inner-circle knew he was unable to perform at a normal schedule, and they 'managed' him from that point on.

1460 days that you got 'auto-pen' as the President.

No one from CNN asking questions?  Yeah....that pops up in my head often.

Three Observations Over This DC-Shooter Episode

1. First....vetting for the 10-thousand-odd folks was said to be accomplished in 14 days, for this wave of Afghan folks.   I don't buy into this....it's not humanly possible, unless you had a thousand vetting folks.

2. Upon arriving in Washington....the only job for this guy was Amazon....which he either quit, or  was let-go....back  in the summer.  His lifestyle? Mostly a gamer.  

3. Charge of murder?   PTSD will come up, and he'll end up in a mental ward for the rest of his life.

Ten Realities We Are Facing

 1.  At this point....if your goal is four years of college, and hoping that AI won't replace your 'fill-a-job' situation....you are likely betting on the wrong horse.  AC-repair, plumbing, and nursing probably fit better for the next forty years.

2.  At the pace of car prices....about 50-percent of 18-year-olds today will never be able to afford a new car....for the remainder of the life.

3. Three cities likely to achieve Detroit-status (dead): SF, Portland, Vegas. Initial signs by 2030, and all three spiral into position by 2035.

4. If you drug-tested your kid's school-teachers....probably ten-percent have 'something' in their system.

5. If you quizzed hardcore Muslims....more than a third of them believe readily in demons, and likely believe there are more demons in western countries.

6. Pretty hefty odds...ALL Americans will be on Medicare within two years (replacing health-insurance), and 90-percent will then be in a massive stage of anger....'its-not-good-enough'.  

7. By the end of 2026....Kennedy probably will have a massive tax on 'bad-foods' (Twinkies, Pop-Tarts, etc).  

8.  We will discover that aliens exist, then  shockingly enough....discover the Democrats have no anti-aliens position to attack Trump on.

9.  Katlin Clark will leave the WNBA by summer of 2026....to be a pro-golfer.

10.  In the next year or so....we will discover that the majority of high school kids....peaked on knowing 'stuff'...around age 15, and the last three years of school are a total waste.  

Simply A Bet

 This shooting in DC yesterday....two dead Guardsmen...shot by a Afghan asylum guy (settled in the US)....had worked for a CIA-related operation for about 10 years in Afghanistan.

Well...I'm betting once folks arrive in Washington-state...checking out his employment (Amazon)....they find that he's in a social-club of other Afghan asylum guys who meet with their former CIA handlers on a regular basis.

Three Finance Stories

1. I was reading a commentary....over lack of updates with IRS.  So it got  brought up....the capital loss limit was set into stone in 1978....remaining still at $3,000.  If you did inflation upgrades since 1978....it ought to be over $15k today.

Same deal with the dependent care credit....set in stone in 1976.  With  inflation....it should be over $17k today.

2.   Apparently....at least one of Amazon's delivery-drones hit a telephone line/internet cable....now the FAA is investigating.  I'd guess.....it's 50-50 if the drones are allowed to continue.

3. 12-percent of all mortgages....that were at least 3 months delinquent....led to what banks/mortgage companies describe as 'no-contact'....meaning the owner knows it's dead-end situation and doesn't see any clean exit possible.

What AI Will 'Give' Us In Probably A Dozen Years

 1.AI will monitor production  and work performed....identifying 'losers' and 'ethically-challenged-workers'.  

2. I expect by 2035....half the school kids in America by the 6th grade....to be in a cube, and educated by AI....instead of living/breathing teachers.

3. AI will be introduced to airports, monitoring flights and potential safety issues.

4. Several banks by 2030....will have a AI-assisted review of your income and bills....telling them a risk-assessment of you paying back a $75k car loan.   To beat the bank's AI.....you will hire a AI to provide week by week monitoring of the family spending habits.

5. AI will begin by 2030....identifying 'fake-news', misinformation, and bogus-political promises....with several networks forced to CHANGE.

6. A quarter of American society will be hooked up to something called 'Grandma-AI'....telling you 150k recipes, and telling you how to cook from scratch.

7. By 2035....an AI system will be developed to monitor voting processes across the 50-plus states....identifying county-by-county....those engaged in voter-fraud.

8. AI, by 2035....will select weekly rankings of NCAA football teams.

9.  A personality test developed by AI...by 2030....will indicate the success potential of relationships/marriages.....in roughly 95-percent of cases.

10.  An AI will be developed by 2035, which monitors safety and urban threats of the top 100 American cities....triggering the public to realize data and false facts are presenting the wrong landscape for their town. 

Four Finance Stories

First....back in the summer of 2023....fresh out of the Covid-era....two high-class hotels in San Francisco....Parc 55 San Francisco (a Hilton property with 1,024 rooms) and the Hilton San Francisco Union Square (with 1,921 rooms), owned by Park Hotels & Resorts, defaulted on a $725 million non-recourse loan.

The holder basically handed the keys to the bank and said that reduced tourism and remote work trends killed off their business plan.

Earlier this month....the two hotels were sold at a steep discount. A partnership between Newbond Holdings and Conversant Capital acquired both properties for a combined $408 million.   If you were wondering....it's a bout  25-percent of the 2016 appraised value. 

General plan?  The owners say the two need renovation, and around $200-M will be poured in over the next year. They left open the reopening plan....I would  assume....spring 2027.

The game-plan dependent on tourism returning to SF?  Yeah....otherwise, this effort will collapse by the end of the first year of operation.

Second story....not front-page news.....vehicle repossessions (for 2025) are at the highest level since 2009.   

In case you were  wondering....since 1945....2009 is the 'record-year'....with 2.1 million cars taken in that year.  

Also, if you were wondering....lenders usually only recover about 30-percent of the loan value....after they pay the tow-guy, storage fees, and sell off the vehicle.  So....somewhere in the numbers game....lenders have to make up for losses.

Third story.....oddly....AI-related investment now accounts for half of GDP growth in the US. Some folks....talk of a speculative bubble and overvaluation. Payback/savings?  Well....you need to un-employ people (like the PhD crowd)....to get some real savings.

Reality?  If the AI-boom for 2025 investments had not occurred....we probably would be in a recession period right now.

Fourth story....in case you were wondering...since 1945, there have been 12 official recessions.  The last?  Spring 2020....primarily due to Covid.

Since finishing high school....I've been through six.

The longest since 1945?  Nov 1973 to Mar 1975 (over a year).  Most last 3 to 6 months.  

Also, in case you were wondering....the triggers usually lead back to the Fed tightening their money-policy, energy chaos/problems, heavy speculation on Wall Street, and bank failures (loaning out funds that end up in failed results). 

I'm of the mind that folks over age 60....have probably seen these come and go, and are LESS stressed-out than those in the 18-to-30 age group. But adding to reality....if  you asked a thousand college-kids (age21) to explain a recession....less than 1-percent could give a simple explanation.

Trump and the Aliens?

 There is a belief existing that President Trump will shortly announce that yes,  we hold 'some' UAP/UFOs, some alien bodies, and all of this stuff since 1947...is real.

So.....there are five questions I'll have.

1. Who is in charge?  

2. Are there tens of thousands of classified patients held by the companies doing backwards-engineering?

3. How much yearly is spent on the secret business?

4. Can the Democrats find a way to screw up this announcement?

5. Will we end up spending all of 2026 trying to grasp the entire story?

Unrealized Losses Story

 Various U.S. banks (Wells Fargo, BoA, Citibank, etc...the big boys)....are now sitting on $395,000,000,000 in unrealized losses as of Q2 2025.

At some point between now and end of 2025....I'll predict the 'boys' all declare losses, and a collapse of stock will occur.

Blame?  Lot of commercial property sitting there....lot of repossessions of cars....lot of new cars sitting on lots....lot of people NOT traveling on vacations. Way beyond the mess of 2008. 

If you had money in your IRA....might be time to move toward bonds or CDs. 

Voting By Phone?

 I watched a interview....new candidate for California Governor...Dem....making a loose comment....he wanted to have voting by phone possible.

I paused over this.

It's not that crazy.  One single phone....tied to a chip....with a number.  If you had a receiving system....that would only accept one single chip number, than zero-out the guy's further actions....it might work.

The problem is you have various non-Americans and kids under 18....with smart-phones, and the state governments are stupid enough to allow any chip-number to work.

Then you have the ten-million-odd folks who can't handle cellphones.....or they have lousy reception.

I Have This Theory

 There's a TV show in Germany called 'Werewolf'...on for two seasons now.  It's a game-show.

There are twenty players....who pretend to be villagers in a town where some are secretly werewolves (killers). 

The goal?  Around four are selected secretly....by a moderator....to be the werewolves. The game then plays out....with a dead figure, and remaining players (really 15  at this point)....figure out who's who by talking, lying, and voting who they believe is the werewolves.

They basically talk, and talk, and talk....with the werewolves nearly always convincing the players to select a non-werewolf to eliminate.   After eliminating the innocent party....the moderator then gives the bad news....there's still four  werewolves. 

Then the werewolves secretly meet, and select another 'victim'....where the chatter occur,  and in 99-percent  of situations....the overall crew again select the wrong person as the werewolf.

Once you get to two innocent folks....the game ends, with the werewolves winning.

So I have this theory.....that on a mass scale....we  are playing werewolf daily.

Examples? Post-9/11 fear campaigns and the Patriot Act.  COVID policy debates (lockdowns, mandates, lab-leak cover-up vs. conspiracy overreach).  Russiagate vs. Hunter Biden laptop suppression.  Trans chatter  in schools and sports (where one side sees coordinated grooming, the other sees coordinated transphobic panic).  Migration crises used to inflame both xenophobia and open-borders ideology simultaneously.

Who invented werewolf?   Well....this gets interesting.  Dimitry Davidoff...invented the core game in 1986, while he was a psychology student at Moscow State University in the Soviet Union (now Russia). 

Why?   He created it as a social experiment and teaching tool to demonstrate how an informed minority can manipulate an uninformed majority.

In my theory....some folks are convinced they are informed.....when the reality is....they are NOT informed.

The question is.....how do we know that two innocent folks  remain....with the final four werewolves?

Five Things About This Alien/UFO Chatter

 This week....this documentary (Age of Disclosure) came out, and pumped up the UFO/alien BS....another notch.  So five observations:

1. Pretty good odds that Trump by end of 2028....will disclose some 'wild' things....over aliens, hidden technology, and UFOs.

2.  Just my humble belief....one out of five people will NOT be able to handle this reality, and paranoid schizophrenic behavior-reaction will be an issue.

3. The worst part of this disclosure?  The control-idiots will admit they were using $1-trillon yearly to run their program.

4.  Somewhere in the middle of the mess....some idiot will admit that 1,660,000 alien-aliens (not Mexican-aliens) are living quietly in the US....given 'papers', social security numbers, and driver's licenses. Then the harsh reality......they are registered to vote....admitting they all voted for Trump.

5. Finally, the aliens will admit that they are greatly entertained by the woke-idiots,  the 'karins', and the 66-gender crowd....that they don't have this BS on their home-planet.

Would I.......

1.  Hook-up with a gal with a nose-ring?

No....it would be distracting each time she was giving me a 30-minute lecture on some BS...that I wouldn't be able to get the 'full-treatment'.

2. Spend $75k on a new car?

No....my reality-meter would max out at $35k....so it'd have to be a used-car.

3. Find a way to be anti-capitalist?

No....even with a half-a-bottle of gin....it just won't be possible.

4. Sit and listen to 10-minutes of struggles-chatter over someone's woes in life? 

When I was 30....I had such patience and at least pretend to 'care'.  Around age 50....my max patience was 3 minutes.  Today....you get about 10 seconds, then I'm leaving.  The struggles-people are like some tribal-unit....wandering in circles, and a brief snow-storm sets them off. 

5. Move to California?

I'd pause over the idea....the most scenic state in the US....then realize that it's basically 'Albania-on-steroids', packed up with 100,000 druggies wandering around on the streets, with some 12-year-old kid in a suit pretending to be governor.

Three Things I Wonder About

 1.  Who did Epstein really work for?  

No news organization seems willing to dig much.  As much as I thought it was Mossad....there's probably a dozen potential 'bosses' in my mind. 

His selling point?  Well....he seemed to convince people that hiding money was awful easy.

2. I get this odd feeling that about 90-percent of Americans have no grasp or understanding over sexual fetishes'.....so they carry on the 66 gender-BS.

But on the other hand....if you did sit down and explain  the list of 12,000 fetishes....it'd probably be a burden for people to carry.

3.It's been 3 years since I had to play 'lock-down'.

No one seems to remember this period. It's just odd when it pops up  in my mind.  So I wonder if the depression-period (1930s), or Vietnam-war period was the same way....so forgetful?

Something I Realized After High School

 I went to a rural region of Alabama school as a kid...graduating in 1977.

If you'd asked me....particularly 1st grade to 9th grade...how many kids were auto-passing (even in serious failure situations)....out of 25 kids....it was probably 3 kids minimum....on some years, up to five kids.

From the 10th to graduation....the system corrected itself to some degree....with 30-to-40 percent of all kids sent to trade-school. 

Reading an issue? From this slow-kid group....the bulk of them never advanced on reading past the 6th grade. It's not a big deal....but trying to have a class around the 10th grade or 11th grade....simply slowed down the whole group.

Five Opinions About Epstein

 1.  I think from the thousand-odd people who went to the isle....probably one-third of them were getting a 'sales-job' on how to hide money, or money-laundry outside of the US.  I think this group doesn't want their name out....because they've done some slightly illegal things.

2. I would suggest that roughly half of the folks who came to the isle.....were given some sales-gimmick on how to financially support certain politicians. If you dug into it....some probably gave upwards to $1-million to  PACs (per year).

3.  Just my guess....it's fewer than fifty men who were brought to the isle....with teenage girls (most of the in the ages of 14-to-16).  They were brought....strictly for blackmail purposes.

4. It just seems  odd....the few folks who talk about their conversations with Epstein...have this idea  that he was brilliant with money/taxes/hiding-cash.  

5. Finally, after the first early charges/convictions....it's just odd....female reporters who are buddy-buddy with Epstein....continue to meet with him.  The charge/conviction....didn't bother them.  

Four Things I Expect With TDS (Trump Delusionary Syndrome) Over 10 Years

 1. By 2029, around 25-percent of TDS-sufferers....will attempt to have Thanksgiving/Christmas situations with their relatives/old friends.  Most of them will say....without Trump around....they've gotten over TDS.

Half of the relatives/friends might accept this without a problem.  The other half will be kind, and just say....'NO'. 

2.  More than 70-percent of TDS-sufferers....will convert to VDS or RDS (Vance or Rubio)....in 2028.

3. In the 12 months leading up to the 2028 election....NDS (Newsom Delusionary Syndrome) will be identified.

4. Around 2035....some mental health folks will identify TDS as a major issue....causing early death among 500,000 identified Americans.  Some study will suggest loss of ten years of life.  

Gavin Newsom Versus Michelle Obama: 2028 Primary?

 I noted someone suggested this scenario today.

How I'd review state wins? Newsom would easily win Iowa...from the rest?   From the southern  states....I  think Obama could take 60 percent of the votes....winning the 12 southern states.

I'm giving a slight 'edge' to Newsom to win the convention.....with him forced to put Michelle up as VP.

I'm not saying this is a perfect match-up.....just that those who remain Democratic-voters....it gets them 'excited'.

Trying To Understand Charlotte, NC

 With all the hype in the past couple of days.....ICE showing up....kids staying home instead of school (21k)....I spent around  90 minutes today reviewing the landscape.

So....the population of the city (officially from the 2020 Census....875k).  Generally from 2024 numbers....they think it's closer to 943k, with the greater Charlotte area being guessed at 2.9-million.

Reading through the BS....I think the true inner-city number (with illegals) closer to 1.1-million, and the greater Charlotte being near 3.2-million.

One out of eight....illegals?  Well...locals seem to argue about the matter, and suggest that much of the business operations revolve around cheap non-American labor. Some suggest the city is unable to function....without the illegal labor.  One person from 2024 commented that the local sports arena operations (food-wise) is greater than 50-percent illegal labor.

Somewhere in the range of 850 to 1,000 teachers hired up for the illegals?  Yeah....it would come out to that level.

This 2020 Census cooked-up?  Well...that's something that I wonder about....maybe 50,000 of the 875k....were illegals.  Maybe in this greater-Charlottesville area...this 2.9-million....maybe it does add up to 400,000 illegals.

If a Trump forced Census lessened the population by 400k...by not counting the illegals?  Well...you'd see legal matters going crazy.

My gut feeling? For the past 20 years....they've grown accustomed to cheap labor, and in their mind....they can't function without this corrupt method.

Three Observations Over Epstein

 1. Around the year 2100....historians will be attempting to explain how for 15 years....no one could understand the whole Epstein story. The 2100 audience will ask....'were these people dumbasses'.

2.  It's just odd....the only person that you continually see unaffected by the Epstein-chatter...is Barak Obama.   

3.  Maybe it's just me.....but it seems odd....absolutely no one seems  to want to tell WHO Epstein worked for....intelligence-wise. 

What Does Primary Residence Or Main Home Or Principal Residence Really Mean

 A primary residence (also called principal residence or main home)...means the place where you spend the bulk of your time.

So most of us (probably 60-percent of Americans)....have one single unit.  Some of us have a condo, a cottage, a cabin, or a 2nd house....where we go for special weekends or summer/winter vacations.

Probably 3-percent of us....have even a 3rd residence.

I worked with a guy who had a wooded area in Minnesota, with a RV trailer, and he'd go for hunting weekends to the trailer...around twice a year (at least....that's the story he told his wife).

Where you get into legal trouble? Well....you with an accountant/lawyer, and sign  papers to say both properties are primary (which that can't really occur).

The problem I suspect that is brewing.....it's possible that if we did a true national audit....we might find several million folks who've lied, and the paperwork is truly messed-up. Adding to the burden....half of them have been doing this for twenty-plus years. Plus a added burden....there might be two million couples....dual-residenced, and dual-voters....having voted twice on five or six occasions.

McRib

 About a month ago....I had a German McDonalds McRib....one of  my favorite menu selections.

I paused over it....opening it up and gazing at the slim piece of cheap pork.  Cost  here?   It'll range from 4.99 Euro to 6.19 Euro (figure $5.50 to $7.20).

The problem is....the longer I look under the 'hood'....it's a cheap pork slice....maybe 7 bits of onion, and a high-sugar sauce, with a decent bun.  All total?  I'd value the 'parts' at no more than 1.60 Euro ($2).  The rest?  Cost of labor, and profit-built-in.

If they went to automation? That's the funny thing...you could probably have a machine load up the pork patties, and pop one out every 20 seconds. You'd just need one guy every hour to refill the pork-machine, and the sauce/onion/bun machines.

The Car Price 'Mess'

 I sat and pondered over this AM....where the hell did car-prices go 'crazy'?  I remember in 2012....a general trend....that you could still go and find new cars for $30k and do a 48-month purchase deal that made sense.

So I asked Grok for the story (AI). Grok said:

"Car prices in the United States began to escalate significantly in early 2021, driven primarily by the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on global supply chains. Factory shutdowns and a severe semiconductor chip shortage reduced new vehicle production, while pent-up consumer demand surged as economies reopened. This imbalance caused average new car transaction prices to climb from around $37,000 in late 2020 to over $47,000 by late 2021, a roughly 27% increase.  Used car prices followed suit, jumping nearly 60% from June 2020 to January 2022, peaking at over $31,000 in April 2022."

Yep....this goes to Covid, and the 2020/2021 era.

I should add....Covid-era-inflation also started to play a role....so you could add another $5k to $7k to this problem.

Last year....the average base-model of a US car...ran to around $48k (new).  For a used-car?  For a 3-to-4 year old car....up around $27k.

Once you added the extras?  Well...you start talking about $10k to $20k.

Trying to blame Trump or Biden?  That's a goofy position to take.

Moving the four-year loan onto six or eight years?  You just compounded the chip and inflation mess...adding another layer of banking cost.

Fixing this?   You'd have to solve the chip-mess (lessening the cost), and start asking for base-model vehicles....then start looking for a path back to the 4-year loan business.

My humble 'bet'? A quarter of all present car companies will cease to exist in two years. And we will reach a point where most people are driving a 7-to-15 year old car. 

Four Syndromes That I Believe Exists

 1.  The 'Superman' Syndrome.

This is where you have an opinion and it's rock-solid for you....plus you need every single relative/friend/associate....to also believe in your opinion.  If they can't believe in your mindset....they can't stand in your shadow.

2. The 'fake-Einstein' Syndrome.

You made your way through high school, and intellectually-speaking...you peaked in the 7th grade.  Yet as each year passed, and your dimwittedness stalled....the 'system' advanced you....all the way to graduate. 

Upon reaching college....rather than deny you entry...they continued the 'fake-Einstein' trend.  This is mostly because you were seen as 'crazy-dollars'. After four years, they handed you a degree while privately admitting you were no brighter than when you were in the 7th grade.

3. The 'friend-of-Epstein' Syndrome.

This is a group of approximately 500-to-1,000 folks who openly vouched that  Epstein was their 'friend'...until the day arrested....then they went completely silent...never able to say anything.

4. The 'Gotta-leave-the-US'  Syndrome.

You've self-hypnotized yourself into believing somewhere is better than the US. The problem here....you might reach a point to believe this....move to London, and discover things are way more screwed  up elsewhere.

Five Theories Of Mine

 1.  3I/Atlas.....just a wild theory I have....it was built by 'us'.  

Probably guessing 100,000 to 200,000 years ago...sent off on a mission and has returned. NASA is getting signals, and can't really explain  this....so it's better to just say silent.

The space crew....shaking their heads mostly....wondering what happened....a bunch of backward folks in charge, and their reality 'gone'.

2.  I have this business theory....if you could offer airline tickets with a possible $80 surcharge to pick you up in a wheel-chair and be wheeled through a airport....10-percent of people would pay for the  'push-service'.

3. I have a theory....that if you introduced 11th grade high school kids into economics in a serious way....more than half the kids who had a desire for 4 years of college....would change their mind and go off to community college or trade school....if they knew the finance downside.

4. I have this theory....if you forced everyone on SNAP to attend a 6-hour cooking course once a month....more than half would correct their crappy diets, and live better lives.

5. I have this theory....out of every five New York City residents to leave the state in 2026....two will end up in Florida.  A housing shortage will be a problem by the end of 2026 for Florida.

Three Things

 1.  I asked Grok/AI how many Americans now have a communist-anti-capitalistic attitude now?

Grok said.....14-percent.  But then Grok said....another 18-percent seem to be leaning this way. Population-wise? If you do  the rough numbers....it's near 40-to-45 million people thinking this way.

Then Grok noted....among  over-age-50...it's near zero-percent  thinking this way. But among the 18-to-29 folks....it's near 39-percent thinking this way.

Crazy times.

2.  I noted this AM.....Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey (D) appointed Giselle Byrd, a man pretending to be a woman, to the ‘Massachusetts Commission on the Status of Women’ which advises on policy to improve opportunities for women.

I paused over this...woman-pretender to fill the void.  There  are probably too many women converting to trans-men/trans-lads....a state-shortage.  That's the only way this makes sense.

3.  All SNAP beneficiaries will need to reapply for benefits.

Odds of  Dem-states fighting this?  100-percent. Odds of judges trying to halt this?  100-percent.

Most European countries?  They run their program where you are constantly establishing your situation, and that you applied for jobs.

How You End Up With A EBT-Card With $30,000 On It?

 I paused over this idea.

You have a friend who has a $1,500 monthly EBT credit deal. Your friend...is a druggie, and would prefer cash.

You go tp the buddy and offer $1,000 cash, for the card.   Every month for two  years.....you pay $1000 in cash. The card keeps accumulating $1,500 monthly.

First year....$18,000 on the card. $6000 profit.

Second year....$36,000 on the card. $12k profit.

Cost to you?  $24,000.  You've got a profit of $12,000.

You use the card....maybe once a month....for $500.

Audit? Never will occur.

Tax-free....better deal than a bank CD.

It would be better....if you had four friends.

Humble Thoughts

 1.  Democrat Rep. Jamie Raskin is apparently involved in a plot where fed-prison staffers stole Ghislaine Maxwell’s attorney-client emails and funneled them to him, which he then leaked to the media in an attempt to smear President Trump.

I pondered over this.

AG action?  They will go after the fed-prison staffers first....basically charging them....then bringing up a deal if the whole story is told...IDing Raskin, and the pay-off (I assume cash). If there is some luck....they will be fined, and fired...with no jail.

Then Raskin  would come up....having to explain the deal....where he got the cash (I assume a  lobbyist-buddy). Guessing on the amount?  I'm  of the mind the fed-prison  staff folks were asking for $10k a week for monitoring and funneling. 

Getting kicked out of the House?  Once the AG  puts the deal up and helps him avoid jail....but having tax issues to admit to....the House can dump Raskin out.

This won't  be settled until Oct/Nov of 2026....I suspect.

2. How this EBT-card mess  will go?

I think Trump in early 2026 will demand a complete person-by-person audit, and require each American (particularly EBT-folks) to have an national ID card.   It's the only way to fix the mess.

Q-and-A

1. Will TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) end in 2029?

I am of the opinion that the intensity will drop by 50-percent....but it will linger even 10 years after his death.

Meaning?  At some point, in 2030....some TDS-suffering soul....will  attempt to attend a family situation, with pro-Trump family members, and try to get past their issue. Meanwhile....the pro-Trump member will say something, and re-trigger TDS all over again.

2.Will VDS (Vance Derangement Syndrome), DDS (DeSantos Derangement Syndrome), or RDS (Rubio Derangement Syndrome) occur next, and be just as serious?

YES.

3. Is there a cure for TDS?

I'm of the mind that if you go old-style empathy (what existed prior to 2000)....about half of the problem goes away.

Disconnecting from the news (limiting yourself to just 30 minutes a day)...also  helps.

4.  Can TDS be passed down to kids?

Kids rebel....so the odds are....they are laughing their ass off at the whole discussion of TDS.

5.  In 15 years, as Baron Trump reaches age 35 and possibly running for President....won't BT-DS start to occur?

Well...yeah....99-percent chance of such.

Ten Humble Opinions

 1.  If you checked the anti-Joe Rogan folks carefully....none of them have ever viewed a single episode of Rogan....to reach their conclusion of hating Rogan.

2. In the back of my head....I keep wondering...there in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s....how did we survive without  'safe-spaces'?

3.  Pondering this week....in The Man from U.N.C.L.E., the evil group that Napoleon Solo and Illya Kuryakin were fighting was THRUSH, a secret international organization bent on world domination through terrorism, espionage, and advanced technology.

Oddly enough....I think here in 2025....THRUSH probably really does exist, that Epstein was a member, and that Antifa is a sub-unit of THRUSH.

4.  Starbucks in 2026?  I'm predicting 25-percent of shops will be closed by the end of the year....mostly over strikes, and unwilling  nature of consumers to pay $5 for a cup of coffee.

5.  If you had a hundred-thousand Democratic voters lined up, and explained the general 'promises' of NYC soon-to-be-mayor Zohran Mamdani...half of them 50,000...would NOT be able to vote Democrat.

6.  Just a gut feeling...more than 1,000 Antifa members will likely be convicted of some felony charge, and spend a minimum of 1-year in prison.  Most all of them are ill-equipped (mentally) to handle prison life.

7.  There's some rumor....that the 'orange' used to make Cheetos....will be eliminated.   My question....will people eat a neutral color Cheeto?

8. In a primary situation....VP Vance versus Gov DeSantos....I think DeSantos could win 20-plus states.  

9.  If you've been on SNAP longer than 10 years....in a highly urbanized-high cost region....you should be forced to relocate to central Kansas....to the lowest-cost area possible...for your good, and the good of tax-payers. 

10.  One of my theories on why aliens continue to visit and study the Earth.....is that they are amazed by our crazy folks.

Four Bits of Advice

 1.  It's ok to work at Starbucks as a barista....making $10 to $15 an hour.  But you really don't want to make this a career and still be there in 20 years....making 10-to-20 percent more. 

2.  Just seems to be a lot of well-to-do folks (making $100k a year)....engaged in mortgage fraud.  You might to weigh the odds of a $50,000 fine or a couple of months in jail.

3. Maybe I'm wrong, but there's about to be a fair shortage of American truck-drivers, and logistical movement is going to be a issue for 6 to 12 months.

4. If you start seeing 200,000 migrants exit the US monthly....either willingly, or by ICE....apartment rentals are going to be noticed....but these are cheaper units that the average American won't desire to move into.

Phenomena Story

 I sat this afternoon....watching a interview with Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna.  Luna says....confirmed that they’ve received testimony and evidence pointing to non-human life forms, with possibly interdimensional phenomena (classified presentations).

I paused over this. To be honest....I was up to the level of accepting aliens (live, regular folks).

Then they've flipped this additional situation.....non-human aliens (like Borgs) into the situation.

On top of that...interdimensional  phenomena....meaning star-gate portals.

It entices me....if some portal were to open up and I  could go off to some star-gate world with Elvis Presley as President, Nancy Pelosi in jail, and McDonalds rib-sandwiches existing all year round...I'd probably step through and stay.

My Problem With Gov Newsom In The 2028 Presidential Election

 1. He seems goofy....like on some kind of tranquilizer-high energy drink combo.

2.  He  talks with his hands...ALOT.  Like some 3rd base coach for the Reds....signaling batters/runners.

3. There seems to be 10,000 problems in California, but he never seems  to be working on them.  

4.   He looks like a 50-year-old male model.

5.  Finally,  you really can't find any achievement of his...over the past 30-odd years...that he personally achieved.

(Note, he reminds me a lot of Barak Obama)

How a Currency Swap Works

Two countries meet, with their central  banks....drawing up a 'swap' deal....usually with a period of effort, and amount. 

At the start, the two parties exchange equivalent amounts of principal in different currencies, based on the prevailing spot exchange rate. For example, Party A might give $10,000 USD to Party B (Argentina), while Party B gives  14-million Arg-Pesos to Party A (assuming an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1,400 Pesos).

Yeah, if you were wondering.....1,400 Pesos to the dollar is pretty high rate. Back in 2022...it was around 400 Pesos to the dollar.

During the swap term, the parties exchange interest payments on the borrowed principal, each in the currency they received. These payments can be fixed or floating, depending on the agreement. 

At maturity?  At the end of the swap term, the parties re-exchange the original principal amounts at the same exchange rate agreed upon initially (or a pre-set rate). This ensures neither party is exposed to exchange rate risk on the principal at maturity.

Having reviewed US use since 1990.....there are NO failures. Of the 47 efforts....a couple were break-even cases....no losses, no profits.  But around 80-plus-percent were profitable. 

Three Things I'd Like To See Change In DC

1.  House-member or Senator....once you buy a house and indicate on the mortgage form that it's your primary residence....if it's outside your state, then that should be your last time to run from the home state.

2.  A special tax created....once you (Senator or House-member) reach $500,000 or more in stock profit/dividends for a year....a 50-percent tax occurs on the amount above $500k.

3.  Finally, in the month of October each year....you (Senator/House-member) have to walk from the Washington Monument to the capital in a 1-hour period, without help or guidance.  If you fail....your term ends on 1 January of the next year....no exception.

Books I Recommend Over 1920, Crash, And 1930s That Followed

The Day the Bubble Burst by Gordon Thomas and Max Morgan-Witts (1979),basically cover the crash, lot of personal stories and financial analysis.

The Roaring Twenties and the Wall Street Crash by Richard M. Worth (2013), historical piece....covers the build-up in the 1920s, and the weeks after the crash.

The Stock Market Crash of 1929: The End of Prosperity by Brenda Lange (2007), more in-depth viewing of the crash, and recommend for people  with basic ideas of finance.

The Autobiography of Calvin Coolidge by Calvin Coolidge (1929), Coolidge writes this from the position of  being there throughout the 1920s. Might be a hard book to find....unless you look for the E-book.

The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression by Amity Shlaes (2007), absolute go-to book over the era. Start with this one to understand the period.

Hard Times: An Oral History of the Great Depression by Studs Terkel (1970), covers the 1930s, and  depression  effects.

Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920s by Frederick Lewis Allen (1931), covers strictly 1920s....up to the crash.

What Led To The 1929 Crash?

I asked Grok/AI what ten things lead to the 1929 crash, and it listed this:

Speculative Bubble in Stock Prices: Throughout the 1920s, stock prices soared as investors, fueled by optimism and easy credit, engaged in rampant speculation. Many stocks were overvalued, with price-to-earnings ratios far exceeding sustainable levels, creating a bubble ripe for bursting.

Excessive Use of Margin Debt: Investors heavily relied on margin loans, borrowing up to 90% of a stock’s value to purchase shares. This amplified gains during the boom but magnified losses when prices fell, as brokers issued margin calls, forcing investors to sell assets at depressed prices.

Overproduction in Industry and Agriculture: American industries and farms produced goods far beyond demand. Factories churned out consumer goods, and farmers expanded output, leading to surpluses, falling prices, and reduced profits, which weakened economic stability.

Unequal Distribution of Wealth: The 1920s saw extreme income inequality, with the top 1% owning a disproportionate share of wealth. Most Americans lacked sufficient purchasing power to sustain the economy’s growth, limiting demand for goods and services.

Weak Banking System: Many banks were undercapitalized and poorly regulated. They invested heavily in speculative ventures and extended risky loans. When depositors panicked after the crash, widespread bank failures wiped out savings and contracted credit.

Decline in International Trade: Post-World War I, European economies struggled, reducing demand for American exports. High U.S. tariffs, like the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922, further stifled global trade, hurting export-dependent industries.

Overconfidence and Irrational Exuberance: The “Roaring Twenties” fostered a belief that prosperity was permanent. Investors, often inexperienced, poured money into the market without regard for fundamentals, ignoring warning signs of economic imbalances.

Lack of Government Oversight: The Federal Reserve and government failed to curb speculative excesses. Loose monetary policy in the mid-1920s fueled credit expansion, and there were no effective regulations to prevent risky financial practices.

Corporate Malfeasance and Fraud: Some companies manipulated financial statements to inflate stock prices, misleading investors. Investment trusts, a popular vehicle, often lacked transparency, hiding risky or worthless assets.

Trigger of Panic and Loss of Confidence: By late 1929, small declines in stock prices and economic indicators sparked fear. On October 24 (Black Thursday) and October 29 (Black Tuesday), massive sell-offs overwhelmed the market, as panicked investors dumped shares, collapsing prices and eroding public confidence.

I need to add this unique problem....as the banks 'tumbled'....the money on the books in the vaults....simply weren't there.  Over the years/decades...the  clerks and management had quietly 'robbed' what was supposed to be there.  So when some business came in for their pay-day, and usually removed $12,000 to pay the wages....banks quietly said $5,000 was the limit....this caused the rush where everyone felt banks were unsafe (they were...no doubt).  The Fed could have resolved some of this, but had no real guts.

The BIG Cat Story

 Up in the wooded area...between the Pfalz (the state) and North Rhine-Westphalia, a hunter has apparently spotted a big 'cat' from his hunting stand.  

Photograph?  Yes, and it's a bit blurred.

Location?   Altenahr, close to the border with North Rhine-Westphalia.

Officially, the only big cats that Germany is supposed to have....the European wildcat and the Eurasian lynx....which I'd call a medium-sized cat....not BIG.

Puma-chatter?  About every 12  months....someone starts up a rumor of a puma or two existing in Germany, and a month later....it's something lesser.

I Had This Chat With AI

 I asked Grok/AI to  add up all currency-swaps since 1990.  Answer?  47.

Yeah, it comes up a lot with Mexico and Canada.  But we did it with probably 20-odd countries.

Probably half were 'unlimited'.

Of the 47....NONE were default situations in the end.

The worst one could say....several (meaning five to eight) had marginal success or impact.  But none were losses situations.

I will say this AI is a massive tool, and kids in the 5th grade should be taught how to ask questions.

My Feelings About a 4-Guy Marriage

 To make this simple....2024....a youth pastor in Germany was asked to bless  the union of four men to each other at a pubic wedding event.  It's wasn't a state-officiated deal....just a church deal.  So the minister in the past month....via her church (the Evangelical Church Berlin-Brandenburg-Silesian Upper Lusatia) kinda told her....this was not a wise idea.

I paused over this.  Germany is pretty set on 2-person marriages.  If you did bring up a polyamory thing...it's mostly Muslim guys who'd like to go this path (with 2 or more wives).

Are the four guys still hooked up?  No one says much about that.  Maybe having the minister join them up....helped.

My gut feeling...the more folks you try to tie-up to a marriage....the more you have to negotiate, and give up on positions.  You might be spending 12 hours a week....talking some idiot partner (or two) to accept changes.

 

Trigger Words For Me

These are trigger words for me.....which you might utter, and I'll stop the conversation and ask stupid questions:

Free, nothing is really free....so I'll regard your talk as BS.

Now, NOW is really now, but if I question you and it was not NOW....then I'll correct.

Exclusive, typically I hear it  at a store, and immediately regard it as BS.

Limited, sales guy chatter....usually BS.

Urgent, usually uttered by Air Force officers....meaning something that the commander said, but most of the time....BS.

New, if this is in a box....OK. But if it's in the open....I don't regard it as new.

Guaranteed, not always positive.

Proven, over-used, and usually uttered by doctors/nurses a lot.

Secret, having work in intelligence for 20 years....simply over-rated.

Instant, some folks utter this....even if it takes 10 minutes to accomplish 'instant'.

Save, 50-percent of the time.....it's truthful.....50-percent of the time, it'sfake  savings.

Discover, it usually means you did something stupid, and just accidentally found something.

Easy,  uttered on Christmas morning usually....meaning a simple-put-together item...requires four hours.

Amazing, usually uttered by a sales guy....at least six times in 10 minutes.....mostly over-used.

Breakthrough, usually meaning 12-year old kid got smart  and did something.

Risk-Free, I usually question how risk free.

Special, there are probably 300 levels of special, and half of them....aren't that special.

Unique, usually never that unique.

Hurry, another term uttered by Air Force officers....meaning you need  to drop urgent work, to do BS stuff.

Only, I usually regard it as a catch-phrase....meaning 'except'.

Bonus, refer to the fine-print....maybe it is a bonus....maybe not.

Essential, after a while....you realize 14,000 things in life are essential...so it's not that big of a deal.

Powerful, there are probably 300 levels of powerful, and it might not mean much.

Safe, used a great deal by Air Force officers....meaning safe enough that even a 7-year-old kid can't be wounded. 

Results, with a results-index....you can might be mildly excited by what people call results.

'Ballz' Story

I sat this morning....reading over this story.

 Basically....a trans-lady had to be checked out by security at JFK, and the security gal (I assume) was a bit 'rough', and hit the 'ballz' of the trans-lady.

Naturally, this hurt the trans-lady, and she started sobbing.

This event will traumatize the security lady....maybe for the rest of her life.  Maybe enough, that she can medically retire from stress.

Really, being a security person....would not be on my top 10,000 jobs now....out of fear of ballz-whacking.

Explaining A Currency Swap....Not A Bailout (The US-Argentina Deal)

Several weeks ago....it came up where Trump signed a deal involving $20-Billion with Argentina, and folks got all bothered by it.  Scott Bessent laid out the deal in simple fashion yesterday.  Looking it over....I  simplified it  as  well. 

So....imagine you and your buddy both have candy stores, but in different countries. You’re in the U.S., so you use dollars to buy your candies. Your friend is in Japan, so they use yen. One day, you both want to try selling each other’s candies in your stores, but you need the other’s money to buy them.

I should  state here....you kinda trust your buddy enough to take  this  action.

A currency swap is like a deal where you agree to trade some of your dollars for your friend’s yen, and they trade some of their yen for your dollars. You both agree to use this money for a while.  It could be six months....it could be a year....it could be 2 years.  You set  out to buy candies for your stores. You also agree to trade back the same amount of money later, so you get your dollars back, and they get their yen back.

$1,000 laid down,  and the 'end'  phase is to have  $1,000-plus.

For example:

You give your friend $100, and they give you 10,000 yen (pretend that’s equal).

You use the yen to buy Japanese candies for your U.S. store.

Your friend uses the dollars to buy American candies for their Japan store.

After a year, you trade back: you give them 10,000 yen, and they give you $100.

Sometimes, you also pay a little extra to each other, like sharing a few candies as a thank-you for the trade. This extra bit is like the “interest” grown-ups talk about.

This swap helps you both sell new candies without having to find dollars or yen somewhere else. It’s like a fair trade to help your candy stores grow.

The odds here?  You end the deal....with the same level  of money you started with and probably have 1-percent to 2-percent more.....maybe in a crazy candy market....you find 5-percent extra.

Can you lose?  Oh yeah....if your buddy was not honest, or the candy market dissolves.

15 Year or 180 Month Car Loans

 Apparently, the gov't will review the idea.

I paused here....wondering what car could possibly last that long. 

My wife's Audi TT....might. 

Anything American made?  No.

Once we got to the level of $75k for a new car....the system was broke.

The $30 Dinner Date Is Long Gone

 I watched a video tape....black gal who had been invited out (1st date) for coffee.  She declined....telling the guy a $5 coffee date won't work.  He responds....a real dinner date is now up around $100 and he's wanting more assurance that she's worth a 2nd date. She said NO.

I paused over this.   

To be honest....a first date  today....at a decent place....would run a minimum of $75. 

Going to Five Guys for a burger?  It probably won't work.   Pizza shop for $30? Nope.  Ribs shop for $40?  Nope.

Just a cocktail 'stop'?  Well....you can figure one drink each....near $25. 

Here's the outcome of this generation....with 20 to 40 year old gals.....guys will start to demand more of a assurance....to reach date number one....meaning that $5  coffee date might be your only avenue to date number two.

Working-Poor?

 I read a piece yesterday.....teacher in Philadelphia saying she has a degree, has a a mortgage, has a car payment and is on SNAP Food Stamps (never saying the amount but would guess $400 minimum).

So she used the term 'working-poor'. 

As I grew up in rural Alabama in the 1970s...you usually associated this  'class' of pay-scale to the guys who worked at the local lumber-mill, the gas-station attendants, school-bus-drivers, and such.

I progressed in high school to the Air Force, and for five years....felt like I was working-poor.....then reached some level where the pay scale corrected itself.

The problem in looking  at this teacher....there's probably half-a-million teachers in the same category....trying to live in a highly urbanized area (like Baltimore, NY City, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, and so on). 

There's a problem brewing....but I doubt that we really want to discuss it.

James Carville Commentary

 I noted this AM....a suggestion put forth by the Democratic strategist...probably aimed for 2028:  bringing the Supreme Court to 13 (instead of the nine presently), getting both DC and Puerto Rico arranged for statehood (adding four Senators), 

I pondered over this. 

I'm of the mind we  should reset the Supreme Court entirely....mandating 50 Justices (one from each state), and a lucky-pick situation for each hearing....selecting nine folks to hear a case (at random).   At the same time, I'd  limit the term to one single term of seven years....then forced retirement.

As for the statehood thing....I'm already open to allow in Alberta and Saskatchewan....as they exit Canada.    I guess I'm open for five or six other provinces as well.  

I'm pretty open for Guam to enter.

I could see the logic of Puerto Rico....although each time this has come up to a vote....folks there just wanted the status of  'no-change'.

Approaching the current Senate and saying it might have to find room to allow 20 more Senators in the hall?  Some of the old guys would freak out.

Five Things

 1.  This 'deal' being worked....where some financial 'help' will occur, and a vote in late December will occur to keep Obama-Care still alive?  Odds of passing?  I give it a 25-percent chance....meaning this will be heavily discussed and falls apart.

2.  The odds of a 2026 (end-of-year) repeat with a 2nd shutdown? I'm betting  it occurs, and goes even LONGER. 

3.   We end up with Medicare-for-all?  Yeah, we ought to start preparing ourselves for this eventual situation.

4. I watched a video this AM....McDonalds manager having taken fentanyl on the shift....totally out....customers coming  behind the counter to steal food.

What bothers me....if you have any contamination of McDonalds food....it's just not worth the problems to eat out,  if you worry about contamination.

5.  If I were a illegal....with crapped-up paperwork prepared by President Biden....I might be looking at the exit door at this point.

Things To Avoid Discussing

 I've devoted some time this year...subjects you should avoid discussing in the holiday period with family affairs.  I pondered over topics that should be avoided in a conversation....because they get people riled-up.  It got up to around forty items, and I finally asked Grok/AI for  help. So the list is up to about 100 things that I probably won't talk to you....unless you hint you might be 'normal':

Politics – Political affiliations and ideologies.  Religion – Beliefs, doctrines, or critiques of faiths.  Abortion – Views on pro-choice vs. pro-life.  Gun control – Firearm laws and rights.  Climate change – Debates on causes or solutions.  Vaccinations – Efficacy, mandates, or skepticism.  Capital punishment – Death penalty morality or application. Immigration policies – Borders, deportation, or asylum.  Taxation – Tax rates or fairness of systems.  Healthcare systems – Single-payer vs. private healthcare.  Euthanasia – Right to die or assisted suicide.  Same-sex marriage – Legal or moral stances.  Gender identity – Transgender rights or definitions.  Racial issues – Systemic racism or affirmative action.  Police reform – Defunding or supporting law enforcement.  Free speech – Limits or extent of expression rights.  Censorship – Social media or government regulation.  Conspiracy theories – UFOs, 9/11, or other events (note: this covers about 18,000 separate stories).  Evolution vs. creationism – Origins of life (but does not concern drop-off theories where aliens just planted life).  Wealth inequality – Redistribution or capitalism critiques.  Foreign policy – Interventions or isolationism.  Military spending – Budgets or global presence.  Education reform – School choice or curriculum debates. Animal rights – Veganism or animal testing.  Genetic engineering – GMOs or human modification.  Drug legalization – Marijuana or harder substances.  Pornography – Morality or regulation (but if discussed as art, it's ok).  Sex education – Curriculum content or age appropriateness.  Parenting styles – Discipline or child-rearing methods.  Divorce – Personal opinions on marriage dissolution.  Polygamy – Cultural or legal acceptance.  Feminism – Definitions or critiques of movements.  Patriarchy – Existence or impact debates.  Cultural appropriation – Fashion, music, or traditions.  Reparations – Historical injustices or compensation.  Nationalism – Patriotism vs. globalism.  Monarchy – Relevance or critiques of royal systems. Socialism vs. capitalism – Economic system preferences.  Privacy rights – Surveillance or data collection.  Artificial intelligence – Ethics or job displacement. Cryptocurrency – Legitimacy or regulation.  Labor unions – Benefits or drawbacks.  Welfare programs – Scope or dependency concerns. Minimum wage – Increases or economic impact. Corporate greed – CEO pay or business practices.  Globalization – Trade or cultural impacts.  Historical revisionism – Rewriting or interpreting history.  Colonialism – Legacy or modern implications.  War crimes – Accountability or specific conflicts. Terrorism – Causes or responses.  Death penalty – Justice or ethical concerns. Surrogacy – Ethics or commercialization.  Adoption – Open vs. closed or interracial issues. Mental health stigma – Treatment or societal views.  Addiction – Personal responsibility vs. disease model. Obesity – Health or body positivity debates.  Diet fads – Keto, vegan, or other trends.  Cosmetic surgery – Vanity or empowerment.  Ageism – Discrimination or generational conflicts.  Retirement age – Policies or fairness. Inheritance – Wealth transfer or taxes.  Gambling – Legalization or addiction concerns. Prostitution – Legal or moral perspectives.  Poverty – Causes or solutions.  Homelessness – Policies or personal responsibility.  Education costs – Student loans or free college.  Standardized testing – Fairness or efficacy.  Homeschooling – Benefits or drawbacks. Charity – Effectiveness or motivations.  Organ donation – Ethics or mandates.  Cloning – Human or animal ethics.  Space exploration – Funding or priorities. Nuclear energy – Safety or necessity. Fossil fuels – Use or environmental impact.  Renewable energy – Practicality or costs.  Overpopulation – Control measures or concerns.  Urban vs. rural living – Lifestyle critiques.  Public transportation – Funding or efficiency.  Monuments – Removal or preservation debates.  Statues – Historical figures or symbolism. Cancel culture – Accountability or overreach.  Social media – Impact on society or mental health.  Influencers – Authenticity or cultural impact.  Celebrity culture – Worship or criticism.  Sports salaries – Fairness or market dynamics.  Esports – Legitimacy as a sport.  Tipping culture – Fairness or expectations. Work-from-home – Productivity or fairness.  Four-day workweek – Feasibility or impact.  Automation – Job loss or progress.  Universal basic income – Viability or effects. Intellectual property – Piracy or creator rights.  Advertising – Ethics or manipulation.  Fashion industry – Sustainability or labor practices. Beauty standards – Media or societal pressure.  Reality TV – Cultural value or harm.  Video games – Violence or addiction concerns.  Astrology – Belief or skepticism.  Superstitions – Cultural or personal beliefs.  Personal finances - Too much debt  or stupid spending.

Note:  I'm also working on a list to go-to-subjects (things you can readily discuss  without problems): Space-Ghost cartoons, zombie movies, discussions over gin, quality of roller-coaster-thrills, county fairs (in-general), hatred of NCAA football decisions/schedules, Hee-Haw humor, any Steinbeck novel, slutty nature of women who wear tube-tops, why the 'L' and 'G' crowd should leave LGTBQ, incompetence of Governor Newsom of California, pro-wrestling, the decline of CNN, stupid people, the Matrix movies, hauling hay in July,  Old Testament verses, Civil War battles, crazy relative stories, screwed-up Star Trek stories, and stock investment strategies.

This 50-Year Mortgage Idea

 Apparently, President Trump suggested up the idea of a 50-year loan....going from the present 30-year loan.

It is the craziest idea I've heard in 2025.

But....it seems that people have accepted the idea of going from a 48-month car-loan.....up  to 96 months (8 years).  Plus folks are stupid enough to attend college on loans....getting stuck at age 21  with $100,000 of  debt.

It also seems crazy that you have hundreds of thousands of Americans charging hundreds per month on groceries....making debt payments over a year of $2k very easily.

How To Handle The Situation If Given Stupid Advice

 Just some general advice...if you have a problem, and some folks are giving you pretty stupid advice (which you quickly realize):

1.  Politely thank the person for their input.  Steer the conversation toward a more productive direction or your preferred approach. 

2.  Gently probe the reasoning behind their stupid advice to expose flaws or redirect focus without dismissing them outright. 

3.  Confidently state your intended course of action, framing it as a personal choice. Example: Remain respectful.

4.  If the advice is unsolicited or irrelevant, simply nod while being stoic....smile, and change the subject or disengage.

5.  Use light humor to diffuse the situation without engaging deeply. I'd refer to this method as the Hee-Haw solution.  

Four Observations

 1.  I noted in AM news today....from NY City.....Zohran Mamdani plans to spend around $230 million to purchase and refurbish this run-down old grocery store in Brooklyn...owned by his cousin.

Odds of a ethics violation?  Near 100-percent, and likely to draw fed attention.  

2.  Over the past month, I've heard the term 'oligarchy' uttered at least 200 times.  If you asked  a thousand Americans...most would say it's a Russian thing, but can't readily define it.

An oligarchy typically....is when a small group of people, like a few rich or powerful or top-religious-tier folks, make all the big decisions for a place, and most other people don't get much say.

Yeah....when you slant it like that....it does sound like the House/Senate folks.

3.  Odd Mamdani story....he is under fire for charging people $13 per beer at his ‘victory party’.  Workers arrived and thought the party would feature free drinks.  They were charged $13 per can of Bud Light.

4.  Wendy's (the fast food shop)....will apparently close several hundred operations....business is way down.  This used to be my top place (1980s).  Haven't been to one since 2010. 

IQ Conversation

 I asked Grok/AI....over the average IQ of folks from northern  Africa and the Middle East.  Note....average IQ is rated at 95-to-100. Folks with 75-to-85 are substandard, and not likely to of any use...other than manual tasks, or clerks.  

So the countries?

Egypt, 76.3

Algeria, 76

Morocco, 84.0

Tunisia, 79.2

Libya, 80.9

Turkey, 86.8

Iran, 80

Iraq, 87

Saudi Arabia, 80.8

Yemen, 82.4

Syria, 83

Jordan, 84.4

UAE, 84

Israel, 92.4

Lebanon, 82

Oman, 83.7

Kuwait, 86

So...yeah....there's only a couple that exceeded 85.....which should bother you.   

Stupid Or Confused People Syndrome

 I asked Grok/AI....since the 1990s....what's happened to folks to make them seem either stupid, confused, or illogical.  So Grok gave me:

Information Overload and Digital Media: The rise of the internet and smartphones (especially post-2000s) has flooded people with information. Social media platforms, starting with early sites like MySpace and exploding with Twitter (now X), TikTok, Facebook, and others, prioritize short, attention-grabbing content. This can reduce attention spans and critical thinking, as people skim rather than deeply engage. Studies suggest average attention spans dropped from 12 seconds in 2000 to 8 seconds by 2015, though these metrics are debated.

Echo Chambers and Polarization: Algorithms on platforms like X amplify content that aligns with users’ existing beliefs, creating echo chambers. This can make nuanced discussion rare and reinforce simplistic or extreme views, which might be mistaken for confusion or lack of intelligence. Since the 1990s, political and cultural polarization has grown, with Pew Research showing U.S. partisan divides widening significantly by 2020.

Decline in Education Quality (Perceived or Real): Some argue education systems have prioritized standardized testing over critical thinking since the 1990s (e.g., No Child Left Behind in the U.S., 2001). Others point to reduced funding for public schools or a shift away from teaching media literacy, leaving people less equipped to navigate complex information. However, global literacy rates have risen, so this perception may reflect higher expectations rather than actual decline.

Cultural Shifts and Anti-Intellectualism: The 1990s saw the start of reality TV and celebrity culture, which often glorify sensationalism over substance. This trend, amplified by social media influencers, can create a perception that superficiality trumps expertise. Public distrust in institutions (media, academia, science) has also grown, with Gallup polls showing confidence in higher education dropping from 57% in 1990 to 36% by 2020.

Cognitive Overload and Mental Health: The pace of modern life—24/7 connectivity, economic pressures, and constant notifications—can lead to decision fatigue and mental fog. Anxiety and depression rates have climbed since the 1990s, with WHO data indicating a 25% global increase in mental health disorders by 2020, potentially affecting clear thinking.

Misinformation and Disinformation: The internet democratized information but also enabled the spread of false narratives. From 1990s chain emails to modern deep fakes, misinformation exploits cognitive biases, making it harder for people to discern truth. A 2018 MIT study found false information spreads six times faster than truth online.

I paused over the answer...it fits easily for the US, the UK, and Germany.

There's hardly a day that passes where I don't find 10 examples of misinformation/disinformation, perceived decline in pure facts, and information overload.  It's rampant in the US....rampant in  the UK and seeming to take off here in Germany.

In a lot of cases....we seriously want to believe in something....but five minutes into the orientation...hitting the mute-button...realizing there were some made-up bogus facts included in the story.  

Explaining Mamdani's NY City Grocery Concept

 Draft idea?  A pilot program for five municipally owned grocery stores (one each in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island).

The stores would be 'built' on city-owned land, targeting areas like public housing projects....where residents face limited access to affordable, fresh groceries.   It has NOT been explained why they can't operate out of current buildings, and no one seems to explain the 3-plus year process of getting permits, or building.

Estimated startup cost is $60 million, funded by redirecting $140 million in existing tax breaks for private grocers and raising corporate taxes to match New Jersey's 11.5% rate.  To be honest here....if you have to start from scratch....I think the startup amount is probably triple the $60-M.

From what I can figure....reading through the material....there are two key advantages: First....the city would purchase directly from wholesalers and farmers at bulk rates, bypassing middlemen.  Second, emphasis on essentials (dairy, produce, grains). 

I might add here.....they claim....zero ads or fancy packaging, which means lower costs passed to shoppers.

My gut feeling?  The city will give the guy enough for one single store to be put up. I don't think you will see the store in 2026, or 2027....over construction issues.  Nowhere in the 'chatter'....do they discuss the matter of theft-control or guards....which seems odd.   

In some ways....they seem to want it to function like a military commissary.  The key cheapness plus of a commissary.....the utilities, management cost, and salaries o all employees....is a gov't thing. Commissaries are set to profit by 5-percent.

NASDAQ Story

 I asked Grok/AI how much influence does the NASDAQ  (Wall Street) have on the economy of NY City.  It took a minute....but eventually came back to say three facts:

1. Out of NY City's total GDP....reaching $1.3-trillion....the insurance/investment sector represents around 30-percent of the GDP.

2.  Of the GDP....the brokers and  'dealers' represent  a fair chunk of this  30-percent number (maybe as much as 20-percent).

3.  Finally, one in ten NY City jobs....are attached to NASDAQ. 

What happens  if NASDAQ leaves?  For about a year, I've been observing  rumors  of NASDAQ discussing the idea of leaving.  This was mostly due to Mamdani-chatter.  So I asked Grok  about that idea.

First, Grok talks of a 'ripple-effect'....where just plain NYers talk of leaving....with NASDAQ following that trend, and then 'other' companies following (a lot of insurance companies make NY City their headquarters.

As for picks for the new location?  Grok discussed Miami, Dallas, Nashville, Austin, and New Jersey.  Number one pick?  Dallas.  

I'm of the mind that the insurance companies might not locate with NASDAQ....meaning they might choose Nashville or Miami....while the NASDAQ picks Dallas.

How quick could they move? In 2026?  I doubt it. You'd probably see the first wave in mid-2027. 

How flipped-out would NY City be....if both the NASDAQ and insurance companies leave?  The governor would go nuts in a matter of minutes. 

Average Cost of a Piggly Wiggly (Yearly)

I asked Grok (AI)....what is the average yearly cost factor for a Piggly Wiggly....not saying NY City....just in a average town.

So Grok said: 

"Piggly Wiggly operates as a franchise model with independently owned stores, primarily in the southeastern U.S., making exact costs variable by location, management, and local regulations. An "average-sized" store is typically 25,000–35,000 square feet, based on industry data for the chain. 

For this analysis, Grok used 30,000 square feet as the benchmark, with estimated annual sales of approximately $13 million (derived from U.S. grocery industry averages of $400–$500 per square foot in sales).  Operating costs are influenced by factors like energy prices, wage laws, and theft rates. 

These are annual estimates; actuals can vary 10–20% based on region (e.g., higher in high-cost states like California). Total operating expenses for a store this size typically range from $2.5–$3.5 million annually (excluding cost of goods sold, which is ~70–75% of revenue)."

The problems with this estimate.....for a place like NY City....with high theft and high wages...you probably need to double  the monthly wage/security cost.

So for the city council to finance just one of these 'no-cost' operations for the mayor....figure $7-million minimum (I'm more likely to figure $12-million if you consider daily theft in the range of $20k).

This is probably the only 'gift' that the city council would give the guy....one single year of covered cost, and eliminating it after 12 months....admitting that theft and real cost is a massive problem.

Eight Things

 1. If you are living off  $25k a year,  with $1000 in SNAP benefits per month....in most urbanized zones, you won't make it. Either get ahead....get new skills, or move to the rural regions.

2. The US gov't paid out $105k for a grant....to establish how long a good shopping cart will last. You could have asked some Piggly Wiggly kid, and he would have summed it up in 20 seconds.

3.   Mamdani 'win'.  My predictions, since he won?  First, the governor and the key Dems on the city council will have a meeting with him, and basically say....'shut-up' on the promises....we don't want half-a-million well-to-do residents to leave the state.   Second, this public grocery idea?  The city council will give him enough  to open one single grocery. For the first month of operation, it'll be around $500k in losses, with a minimum of 100 arrested for shop-lifting.  At the 12th month....the city council will shut-down the operation.  Third and final....around 100k city residents who own property in up-state NY and in Florida....will have left the city by late January.  Another 100k will leave by March of 2026. By summer of 2026....roughly 400,000 will have exited the city.

4.  Denialist. For the first 65 years of my life....I never heard anyone utter this word.  Suddenly....it's a daily thing now. 

5.  I think folks had best start thinking about the idea of two new US states....Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Will be a serious topic by the end of 2026.

6.  Don't know if it's intentional, but out of each ten SNAP-interviews on the news....half the time....I'd say the person talking is a hefty 40-percent over their normal weight.  

7.  By 2028, I expect a thousand Republicans to be double-and-triple registered...in  different states, and voting illegaly....to make a point

8.  Over 2026....some Hollywood team will be in NY City....making a movie called 'Escape From NY City-2026'.....with a dozen comedians  playing roles....as they try to leave the city.

The Maine Story

The Maine Health System....apparently...accidentally...sent letters out to more than 500 patients (I assume in-patient status)....stating they're dead.

Not saying....bad-off, or  seriously ill.....just plain dead.

I paused over this...pondering.

There's about ten different ways that you could take this...some positive...some negative. 

Most of us would ask how they assessed the death situation....if this were confirmed by doctor, chiropractor, nurse, vet, or county judge.

Some would ask if this was a false test procedure....you know....like a false-positive, or a true-negative.

But this brings up the whole dead-voter thing, and 8,000 probable Maine dead-folks remarkably show up each November, and vote.  

My last question here....did the 500 seek help to rectify the death-situation, or just accept like a stoic individual?

The One-Million 'Fleeing'?

 NY City journalists say....based on polls and interviews....around 1-million  NY City residents intend to 'FLEE' if Mamdani wins.  They noted....these 1-million are threatening....they already have drawn up personal plans and established basic  details to this.

Over the past month, I've watched interviews, and would probably suggest that most who commented on a 'flee' plan...were older folks (over 60).  I would imagine if you asked of the 1-million....more than 10-percent have a Florida condo in existence already, and that's going to be very quickly the new residence.

The rest? Unknown.  Are they owners, or renters?  Again, unknown.  How quick will they leave?  That's also an unknown.....although most probably will be packed-up by January.

But here's the odd factor....none of the 1-million voted for Mamdani....so from  the crowd left....it's overwhelmingly pro-Mamdani....like up into the 60-percent point at this part of the game.

Finally, fleeing is a strange word to use.  Usually, you associate it with war, or some disaster. 

Stupid Fake BS

 Yesterday, I read through a social media piece....suggesting the FIFA folks (int'l soccer) intend to take the World Cup games from the US (slated for Canada, US and Mexico) and distribute them to Mexico and Canada entirely...because of ICE operations.

Upon reading....I sat for 2 minutes, and then said 'BS'.  I looked it up via Grok (AI)....simply BS rumor started up....no facts.

I'd say at least 3 to 10 times  a day now....I see fake news, and can pretty much ID it as fake within 2 minutes.

Four Thoughts

 1.  Was ObamaCare as designed and 'released' in 2014....most business analysts said quietly....if it lasted a decade....people would be lucky.  Well....with increases set to take place in January....it's DONE.  As much as people think the budget deal is the BIG thing to resolve....no, ObamaCare has to be thrown out and TrumpCare likely has to take place, and you can forget about gold, silver or bronze plans....you will end up with Medicare-Plus and if you want 'extra'  stuff.....you will pay out of your own pocket.

2. If you are age 50, and been on food stamps, welfare, or SNAP for  your entire life....there's something wrong.

3.  If your family total of yearly health insurance premiums and deductibles exceed  $30,000....I don't see any reason to continue.  I'm not suggesting an alternative....but it makes little sense to hand over $300,000 over the next ten years.

4. Gov. Gavin Newsom actually did say: “There is nothing I dislike more than a politician who sits there and lies to you.”

How To Grasp The Trump/Judge/SNAP Stuff?

The monthly SNAP money required is $8.5-to-$9 billion (give or take).

What the primary contingency fund has presently?  Around $5.25 billion. If you do the math....it's about 2.5 weeks worth.  However, if the judge means immedate turn-on....well, it takes about 7 days for the gov't to load and 'move' money to the states.   So even if things go well on Monday....it would NOT show up until 10 November, and be about 60 percent of a normal month.

Trump's crew intends to ask the judges about their power to issue this command, and prepare them for the  problem that it only lasts for two weeks.

I personally don't think either of the two judges involved....understands much on finance, SNAP, or  moving money around.

The other problem that comes up....the two judges could  direct the USDA to consider reallocating up to $23 billion from a separate account under the Agricultural Adjustment Act amendments of 1935. 

Logically.....if this order occurred....it could potentially cover the full monthly SNAP outlay for November, December, January, and probably February.

However, at that point...the pot would be entirely gone (empty).

Meanwhile, the Trump team would likely ask....do the judges have this authority, and the Supreme Court (figure 10 days) would be handed the case, and ask under what authority that a judge can spend money....under the Constitution (there is none).

My humble guess is that Trump will marginally cooperate....handing out $3-billion...to get things started around the 10th, and let the Supreme Court say it's not legal....pinning finance/legal problems  back onto the two judges.

But to add more 'fuel' to this....just guessing....most all grocery stores in the US...will begin shutting down by Wednesday of this week....where you can order and pay for your goods at the front door (figure a $10 fee involved). 

More to come?  I have this idea....that non-Americans on SNAP probably have a limited amount of time left....before they will be dumped off.  If you think things are crappy now....just wait.

2020 VP Discussion

 I spent an hour this AM....studying 2020, and the final five on the VP list for Joe Biden to pick from.  The list?

Kamala Harris (Senator from California): Selected as the nominee; her prosecutorial background and appeal to diverse voters.

Susan Rice (former National Security Advisor): Praised for foreign policy expertise but faced scrutiny over past controversies like the Benghazi response.

Elizabeth Warren (Senator from Massachusetts): Valued for progressive policy chops but criticized for primary-season clashes with Biden.

Gretchen Whitmer (Governor of Michigan): Seen as a battleground-state boost with strong executive experience amid the COVID-19 crisis.

Stacey Abrams (former Georgia House Minority Leader): Highlighted for voter mobilization efforts, especially among Black voters in the South.

In the end...Joe selected Kamala...at least that's the story.

I'm of the mind that Jill Biden reviewed the list, and helped to select Kamala....thinking she was less likely to challenge Joe if the dementia-thing came up as a serious topic.

Why Joe Biden Had To Use The E-Pen

Well....I was curious about this and asked Grok (Twitter-AI): 

"People with Alzheimer's disease may retain the ability to sign their name in the early stages, as this is often a deeply ingrained, automatic motor skill. However, as the disease progresses, cognitive and motor impairments can make signing difficult or inconsistent. In mild stages, they might still sign legibly, though they may struggle with understanding the purpose of signing. In moderate to severe stages, fine motor skills, memory, and recognition of their own name can deteriorate, potentially making signing impossible or resulting in irregular, unrecognizable signatures."

So I imagine early on....maybe in the first four weeks....his signature was 'crap' and if it got out....people would ask what's wrong with Joe's signature?

The comical side of this?  There's probably nothing in the four-year period that he personally signed....so the value of any document...is zero.

How Illegal EBT Works

 I sat down this week and got to understand how EBT-card fraud occurs.

So....'Wendy' goes and gets registered for her and the kids to be on SNAP (the food stamp program).  At the minimum....she could get $200.  But on the max-side...it could  go up to $1,500.

Wendy has four kids in this scenario, and gets $1,500 in EBT money.

Wendy goes to a 'dealer', who offers  Wendy cash....$1,000 minimum....maybe even $1,250 in cash.  On the books....Wendy can't collect cash, alcohol, tobacco, or hot prepared meals (like McDonalds or Pizza).  But with the $1,200 in cash....she can get booze, smokes,  weed, or pizza.

The dealer?  They have a card to immediately buy grocery items or $1,500.  They have several options then....offer to sell Wendy $900 of groceries for $1,000....offer some 'mom-and-pop' shop $10,000 of groceries from Costco at a rate of $10,500.

Illegal?  Well....it's a federal felony under 7 U.S. Code § 2024, with penalties including permanent disqualification from SNAP, fines up to $250,000, and up to 20 years in prison.

The '16' Chatter

 I watched a podcast interview this week with former VP Kamala Harris. The chief thing I got out of this 15-to-20 min piece (yeah, it was a waste of my time)....she believes that the voting age should be lowered to 16.....mostly because Gen Z suffers from “climate anxiety.”

Afterwards, I paused over this.

Here in Europe....most all of the liberal or left-of-center parties....want the age shifted down to 16 as well. The general population of Europe....don't feel that happy about the idea.

With the Harris suggestion....I was thinking if you'd lower the booze-age, smokes-age, marrying-age, entry-into-the-Army-age....then it's a fine idea.  But I'm pretty sure Harris isn't keen on those ideas.

Did Harris seemed boozed-up or tranquilized?  Well....yeah, I did notice that about 3 minutes into the talk. 

Reflecting upon the election....I generally put Harris into the category of least-qualified candidate....maybe for the past 100 years.  Course, if you had opened up the situation and allowed Governor Newsom to run.....I'm not sure if he would be much better.