If I Were A Alien Group Visiting Earth......

 I'd look over at your artificial intelligence (AI) BS.....quietly hook up the master computer  on my ship one night to the AI mainframe....have the alien AI talk to the human AI....then quietly advance it by 1,000 years.

'Joe' and 'Ernie' would walk in the next day....find all this massive improvement in knowledge, and just explain to Elon as a accident.

If this were to happen....you'd see tons of  technology improvements in a matter of just ten years, yet never realizing you were helped.

Just something to ponder.

Four Humble Thoughts

 1.  Was the US in a recession in 2024?

Well...using latest available data....NO. The United States was not officially in a recession in 2024. 

But as you define a recession....in the traditional  way...you need two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

If you asked me....was it possible that Biden's crew in 2023 started screwing with data collection, and using USAID money (tens of billions)....to prevent GDP  negativity....I'd likely say it's very possible.

2.  I hate to think 'ill' of people.....but there's not a day when I see something via the news or Twitter....thinking....that gal or guy is mentally ill and unprepared to handle  life.

3.  I suspect as the months pass in 2025....a paper-trail  of USAID money will develop....going back to ten-plus Senators, and 50-odd House members....some Republican....some Democrat.  Charges to develop?  Yeah, and so....this 2026 mid-term election might run entirely different.

4.  With all this BS about migrants getting social security numbers.....I would  suggest somewhere out there....some American guy with time on his hands and a knowledge  of Spanish....probably presented himself to some authorities as 'Pedro', and has actually developed a secret identity....with a 2nd social  security situation.  He might even be 'Pedro'....registered to vote.  

Reality To Grasp In 2025

 Both the Confederacy AND the Klu Klux Klan....were started by the Democratic Party. 

Yeah....it's hard for some folks to realize.

Also....by 1865, and 1920.....both were put into a lose-lose situation....oddly by Republicans.

Seven Things I Believe Now

 1.  Covid, more or less, became a test of how you accept or deny 'thinking' critically. Some passed....some failed.

2.   Watching 'Life of Brian'.....brings you to thinking critically about reality in 2025.

3.  The more I observe Jasmine Crockett....a college grad and 44 years old....I see her with the maturity level of a 10-year old  kid.

4. I suspect if you tested 1,000 college graduates.....a  decade later....you'd find that 50-percent of them on a IQ test.....would not rise above 85.

5.   Two out of three Americans....if they needed $2,000 for an emergency....data collection shows they don't have the money.  I believe....half of these people are mentally stressed to the point....that they are counting on the gov't, some relative, or church membership to 'save' them.

6.  If you asked most Americans to define a Democracy....the majority would say 'voting' is the only real definition to describe the word.

7.  I don't think any "hard" data exists on inflation, growth, spending, and incomes....for 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024.....from  the Biden crew.

Theater Chatter

 The NY Post wrote up a piece last week...entitled 'Movie theaters are trying everything to bring audiences back.'

Basically, ever since Covid....theaters are in a spiral, and can't get people to show up.

Part of the problem?  I would suggest for the past decade....it's been a crappy production element at play....making movies that you really don't care to view.  There was a period in the mid-70s....where for a year or two...it was crap.  Presently?  We are working on five to six consecutive years of mostly crap.

Another element?  If you were fairly stupid and putting $200-million at risk....making another Marvel 'loser'....you probably will just turn enough to break even.  

Houthi-Chatter

 I sat and read the whole Houthi-attack-discussion via Signal....with the Pentagon big-wig commentary this AM.  So four observations:

1.  Unlike previous administration BS....thoughtful commentary.

2.  Hate to suggest it...but half this stuff could have been written by Grok...Twitter's AI 'thing'.  

3. It seems like everyone is agreed...European Navy support is worthless.

4.  After the initial strike....I don't see a round-two occurring.

Five Things I Now Believe

 1. If you questioned a thousand Americans and brought up Houthi rebels (as in this Signal-Atlantic scandal)....asking folks who are the Houthi...99.99-percent would have no idea.  1-percent would say they are from the Houthi-Land...pointing toward Africa.  Another 1-percent would say it's some neighborhood in NY City.  

2.  People who get all chatty about fascism and remark that they spend an hour a day thinking about such stuff....probably have a mental disorder of some type.

3. It's going to come to a point in mid-2026 (18 months after the fire)....where LA admits they've only approved 1,000 re-build permits (out of 20,000 potential re-builds).  The city will be in the middle of a class-action lawsuit....with 1,000 folks demanding $1-million each for stalling the process.

4.  If you are in the middle of a two-year period at some 5-star PhD program....here on a student visa, and they find you out on protests/demonstrations....boy, you wasted an entire year of your life, for nothing.  You  will never get the visa back, and the money spent will be a joke.

5.  The odds that Signal is a CIA-Mossad project?  I now give it a 40-percent chance.

My Signal Idea

 I've been pondering....opening up a Signal account with a fake name...'Marvin McDougal McBubbles' and getting set up on the Pentagon addressee list....so I can have input to Pentagon and White House decisions.

I've got time since I retired, and readily admit....I might be better prepared for the BS required.

So if you read up on some new CNN scandal and some guy named McBubbles is mentioned....it's me.

Opinion of Seven Personalities

 1.  Gov Gavin Newsom.  He'll talk for 20 minutes, and then you come to realize that 98-percent was pure BS. He's the only guy who suggests to write a study....over a study...about studies....on how to analyze a study.

2. Jasmine Crockett. While 43 years old....she has the maturity level of a 11-year old  kid.

3.  Elon Musk.  Most all billionaires have a collection of cars....a island....a yacht...and seem hellbent on avoiding mentions of their visit to Epstein Isle.  He's the oddball guy....the exception.

4.  Katherine Maher, NPR CEO.  Out of her league,  and  will be unable to keep the  network afloat if funding dissolves.

5. Joe Biden.  I think symptoms of memory loss were notable from 2018. From 2022....he was full-blown 'out'.

6. Ambassador John Stevens....dead, and likely never understood the whole mission...he was supposed to get some missiles 'back', and pay in some way for them.  

7.  Ilhan Omar, House Representative.   Look....there's no doubt that she married her blood-relative (brother)....but this was to get him a Green Card.  Later they divorced. As long as it was just a paper-act and nothing else....just get over the illegality of the act.

Something Else About This Signal-Alex Wang-Michael Waltz-Jeffrey Goldberg 'Scandal'

 Just odd....yesterday...several folks commented that this Pentagon Security Advisor...Waltz....KNOWS Goldberg (leaked to him before).  This unknown status that Waltz proclaims?  Probably BS.

Waltz also has been connected to Romney and McCain in the past (another problem).

It's entirely possible that Waltz set Wang (the junior Exec of his) up for the fall....figuring Wang would get blamed and fired. 

And one other observation....this is a situation where I would have asked the seven or so folks....if they wanted to comment....come to the Pentagon at x-time, and I'd have a catered situation lunch or dinner....for 90 minutes in a secure place. Or  you could have had a classified  'Zoom' meeting set (each has such a facility). 

How This 'End' of NPR/Public TV Will Shape Up?

 Within 90 days....the 2026 budget will shape up, and I'll make three predictions:

1.  NPR is given a massive cut....enough to complete 2025, and to provide for a quarter or two of 2026.   At that point....no further gov't funding.

2.  I think NPR could survive via foundations, and a major cutting of management folks.  But I also think the 'hosts'/journalists  core would have to be cut....with probably half the new folks limited  to $60k a year on salary for basic starter pay (1st ten years).   Whether they are interested in this business model? I have no idea.

3.  As for public TV? If they were to stick to education and  culture....leaving the news format out....they might get the funding to survive on.  They probably will argue news/talk is part of their requirement.....thus getting nothing.

From the mid-70s to the early 1990s....I was a regular listener of NPR.  At some point around 2000....I considered more of a propaganda vehicle....than what they were designed for.  

This Signal-Alex Wang-Michael Waltz-Jeffrey Goldberg 'Scandal'

 Six Observations:

1.  First, after reading the first version and updated version of what Goldberg wrote for the Atlantic....saying it was Secret....I came to the conclusion....whoever wrote the first part (suggesting Waltz)....attended a bare basics discussion and attempting to call  it a classified war plan....is like watching 'Gone With The Wind' and  having some idea about how the Civil War will go.  

Yeah, it's bare bones stuff, and if you were the enemy....you'd be shaking your head. It's of zero value.

2.  Wang's involvement? Well....if you read this....he added Jeffrey's fake name/address onto the Signal guest/addressee list.  If you read his background....yeah, he's a rock-solid Biden guy and I'd ask how the Pentagon guys decided keep him on the list.

3.  The purpose of the Signal product? Best that I can see....some folks wanted to talk about priorities. Whoever they thought  Jeff was pretending to be....they assumed he knew something.  Why not address all of this on  Secret LAN system?  That's a total mystery to me, and just an indicator of how lazy they are.

4.  Goldberg doing anyone favors?  Well....no.  

5.  So back to the main topic...at some point in  two or three weeks....there's to be some airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.  There's to be some dead Houthi guys who signed up for something, and got a raw deal.  

6. Finally, this Wang guy?  He's probably got a job search likely going on.

Oh, and do I think this all leads back  to some Mossad players?  Yeah.

This Judge Chatter

 A couple of years ago...I was reading through a commentary that dealt with judicial 'power' being used to create law (avoiding the legislative and executive branches), and the person came to the end to suggest three ending scenarios.  

The end?  Well....this was before Trump came along (2016)....but the idea was that some President would refuse to play along with the 'created' powers of these federal judges (and probably the Supreme Court).

The effect of the scenarios that follow? 

More-or-less....public attention would go down this path....like Superman had lost  his powers, and federal judges came to be just a traveling-circus-show.

By the end of 2025....I suspect even the Supreme Court will be in this lost power situation.  

As for people being confused and saying democracy has 'fallen'? Well...how would you want to make laws....without the House having a say in the matter?

Odd Story

 I sat and watched a Tempe, AZ news piece today.....couple of cops were on a break....at Starbucks....having a coffee (journalist says six).  

Apparently...someone went to  the Starbucks  'boss', and said they felt 'unsafe', wanting the shift-manager to ask them to leave.  Cops took the request, and quietly left.

Word got out, and you ended up with two public situations brewing.

One group, supporting the police....'this is crazy stupid' being the reaction....with corporate Starbucks saying basically the same thing.

Other group....saying they feel 'unsafe' around any police, period.

Analyzing this....it's just odd how people list umpteen different folks as making you feel 'triggered' (unsafe).  I just can't recall something like this in society in 1970s/1980s.

I could see today....folks feeling triggered with Mennonites, guys-in-football-jerseys, trampy-dressed-women, Jehovah's people, or even bald guys.

Numbers Story

 Over the weekend....AOC and Bernie Sanders had a rally...enntitled 'against oligarchy',  So some folks collected cell phone data of the event.

What you can say for a fact....Around  84 percent of folks....had gone to nine or more 'brand' events (mean Kam, Antifa, BLM, pro-Hamas or pro-Palestinian).

Another number fact...roughly one out of three had attended a minimum of twenty 'brand' rallies.

The general number claimed to be there at the event?  Around 30,000....more or less.  

So analyzing the data...if the 30,000 number is true....then at least 25,000 were 'brand' attendees...and in all probability....paid in some fashion to be there.  

Pay scale?  I would imagine busloads of folks...providing a dinner menu ($20) and somewhere around $100 for attendance....the cost factor (without the bus cost) is in the $3.1-million range.  

Who spent the $3.1-million?  Unknown....just a humble guess, it came from USAID payments over the past four years.  

Movie Review: The Electric State (Off Netflix)

 Last week, off Netfli....the 'Electric State' came up (new movie).   

Look, it's marginally a two-star movie...costing $320 million to make.  

The sy-fi script? Crap.

The acting? Marginally acceptable.

I'd advise you....if you need entertainment off Netflix....go look for South Korean productions.

Three Humble Observations

 1.  Whats to come of these judge situations and the Trump Administration?

Article III, Section 1 of the Constitution says....judges can hold their office/power....as long as they show "good behavior".

I would speculate toward July....patience will have run out, and compensation/pay will be terminated because of the behavior issue.  At that point, the President will give the Supreme Court one chance to clean up the mess, and they will fail.   Then you will have one-hundred-plus judges working for free.  We'll see how long this can work.

2.  By the end of 2025....the news media  will actively discuss the idea that the Democratic Party is 'broke'.  

What comes in 2026?   At least forty House seats held by the Democrats will likely shift to Republicans, along with six Senate seats.  In  2027, I would suggest at least two groups trying to rebuild the Democratic Party....one to a far-left extreme and one to a moderate degree.   2028?  Building up to be a mess.

3.  Chatter off the internet says (BS maybe)....you can earn $100 if you attend the "Oligarchy Tour" run by Bernie Sanders and AOC.  The tour?  Roughly a 90-minute event, if the chatter is true.   So you could waste 1.5 hours of your time.....earning a $100.   

This Chatter of the Department of Education Ending

 I grew up and finished high school before DoE came to exist (1979).   I guess I was in the lucky group.

Around the late 1980s....I worked around older NCOs who had kids in school, and 'changes' were being discussed.  'Sarge' was disgruntled over various little changes....where the kid didn't 'get' it.  A change in education tactics was taking place, and the teachers were wasting twelve hours....trying to get a simple process across (the old process would have consumed four class-hours).  

In the 90s....these changes started to occur in college environments....where they were getting less-than-average students, and expected to bring them up a notch.  I'd offer the observation....this simply meant colleges were starting to set themselves up as the 11th/12th grade-plus education system (what was not taught in high school...the college would make up the 'loss').

Around 2011, I worked with a guy whose daughter was wrapping up high school....considered highly gifted....and applying for George Mason University.   They accepted her, but required a English and math assessment test.  Failing both....the college required her to take a pre-college course (actually two courses).  Dad had to pay for this and was peeved....why didn't she have the knowledge required for a 12th-grade assessment test.....was the question asked.  I didn't say much but thought....well....she's really not so gifted.

This 'gifted-label' gets tossed around a good bit these days.  I imagine that the majority of gifted folks....are actually less than average.  But it's probably a bad thing to mention this in public.

So while all of this was going on....more fake gifted-teachers completed college, and got jobs in schools across the country.  

I doubt that this was a design or planned-out....but you end up now with most kids probably at the 8th/9th grade level....finishing high school, and colleges wasting 1 to 2 years....teaching 11th/12th grade topics, and most folks wrapping up college at a junior college level.  The cherry on this cake?  You borrow $80,000 in student  loans.....have what is a junior college degree.

Weird Chatter

 Yesterday, I came upon this new update with the Pyramids of Egypt....which you can view off Twitter (here).

The story?  Around three years ago....some PhD guys asked if they could use newly developed advanced radar....for above-ground and below-ground sections of the area of the Pyramids.

Last year....they finished data-collection and about 10 days ago....they laid out this new 'issue'.

Long before any stone was laid down for the Pyramids....there was a digging project.

The depth of this digging?  648 meters (2125 ft, roughly 40-percent of a mile).  One single digging?  Well....NO.  The 'boys' (whoever did the digging)....laid out eight cylindrical 'tubes'...with some kind of coil around each.  But then at the bottom of these 'tubes'....there two 'boxes-or-chambers' staged. Size of each box/chamber?  80 meters in diameter.  Purpose of the box/chamber?  So far, they say it's container....for water.  

The 'coil' part of the story?  Well.....you really don't know the 'use' or 'function', or material used.

Why you needed a container down at half-a-mile, for water?  Unknown....no one even speculates on this engineering marvel.

Answering questions?  No....it just begs more problems.

I would imagine the PhD guys would like to have a digging machine  and go  down 2,125 ft and see what the box-chamber is made of, and if there is water inside.  

The amount of effort to dig to this depth, put eight 'tubes' in and lay two boxes/chambers at that depth....then go and erect the pyramids themselves?  You can go and double the manpower required.

Obvious work of the Pharaoh-crew? No....they dug tunnels for burial sites, but this tube business and double-box/chamber stuff.....way beyond their technology.

Disturbing the Egyptians?  I would suggest the chief committee who oversees tourism/protection....are in a wild meeting situation.  Last year, they pulled in $14-billion from tourism alone.....they don't want something to destroy that gimmick.

So I came to five humble thoughts....

1.  Whoever dug this.....this was not their first such project...they'd obviously done this before (perhaps on a lesser scale) and they had developed this technology after decades of 'use'.

2.  All this burial site stuff?  You can dump that and assume that some Egyptians came upon the site....bluffed the public at that time some legend BS.

3.  The talk so far is that the two boxes/chambers....are simply water containers.  But you can't say this with any reliability.  So digging down....is a necessity.

4.  The pro-Egyptian-Pharaoh could still bluff their way through this....saying the Pharaohs in question are buried in the two chambers at the bottom, and 20-odd years were wasted in just digging the 'hole'.

5.  Finally, there's other pyramids around the world....you reckon that 10-percent of them have a tubes/boxes/chambers?  

The weirdest idea?  Well....at that depth....the chambers would  make a fine bomb-shelter.  Just me saying that though. 

My suggestion.....dig a hole to  where you can put a tour 'module' in a separate pit....200 ft away, then dig a hall to the two chambers.  Offer tourist a chance to enter...paying $300 a visit.  

Rogan's Topic

 I sat this morning and looked over commentary yesterday VP-candidate (2024) Tim Walz.....who  talked about Kamala Harris not being on Joe Rogan's podcast.

Basically, he said he didn't  think it would have changed much.....if she had shown up.

My belief?  

I think she would  have written an iron-clad rule....a interview with Joe, and not to last more than 25-to-30 minutes, with a list of 25 potential questions pre-approved. 

For those who haven't viewed Rogan's show....he doesn't do interviews....he has conversations.  Typically, these go on for two hours, and most approach three hours.

Harris?  She has a serious phobia of long talks, and stresses out. 

If she had attempted the format of Rogan's show....it would have been dismal results, and made her look foolish.

But looking back....if you had George Bush on Rogan's show....same results....Bush would have looked like an idiot.  Hillary Clinton?  Probably the same way.  McCain, Obama?  Same way.   

I imagine Reagan might have sat there for four hours chatting away....same for Jimmy Carter.

It's just odd how  we still engage on this topic, and wonder....what could have happened?

Ten General Rules I Live By

 1.  If someone seems whacko and full-up crazy....I don't give them time to explain things to me or detail their childhood, or their relationship to the second wife, or the month they spent in some Peruvian jungle, or their experiences with drugs/alcohol.

2.  Generally, the more technology you throw into something....the less likely I'm thrilled to buy it.

3.  There is always a plan-B roaming around in my head.

4.  If there appears to be at least a foot of flood-water on the road.....I'm reversing and returning to my starting point.

5. If a story is overly complicated and requires five minutes to tell....you probably will lose me at the end of two minutes.

6.   Focus upon things you can control.  If you can't control x-number of things....avoid them.

7.  Don't be stupid and promise 3,000 things....promise only what you can deliver.

8.  Any resort that offers up a package of all-inclusive 'drinks' (like cocktails)....usually gives you something of low-content alcohol.  So always bring a flask along on such trips, and 'reload' your drink with the flask.

9.  If some 'deal' seems overly complicated (taking 10 minutes to explain)....probably should be a deal to avoid.

10.  If you've met someone at the airport, lounge, or city park....who seems to be wanting to drag you into a conversation on Covid....it's probably like a PTSD-thing and they feel either guilty, or stupid.  Give them five minutes of your patience....then retreat/leave.  

Humble Observations Over Taking Panama Canal (Militarily)

 I was stationed in Panama for 3 years (mid-80s)....so I have a fair amount of insight  to the country and the canal.

First, all the way through the last 70-odd years of US operations of the canal....Panamanians felt it made profit, and they should share in the profit.  To be blunt, the incoming fee for transit....if you added up the normal yearly costs....it paid for operations, period.  There was never a profit.  Added on.....Congress gave the canal tens of millions yearly....to cover upgrades.  

Second, since the US left.....ALL of the base properties (Army, Navy and Air Force) have been in a re-use situation.  So trying to put 10,000 to 20,000 US troops in the region again....requires a ton of new infrastructure....figure $30-billion minimum.

Third, if you really wanted to throw a 'curve'  into the mix.....offer up statehood, and US citizenship to Panamanians (population, 4.5-million).  I would imagine over 75-percent of the public would see it as favorable.

Fourth, to fix the water-problem for the canal operation.....you will have to enlarge Lake Gatun....figure at least 25-percent larger than now.  Environmentalists freaking out?  Oh yeah.

Fifth and final....back in 2017.....they figured around 25,000 Americans permanently living in Panama.  Currently, with the crazy expansion in Chiriquí region (NW)....there's probably around 80k to 90k Americans in the country.  At the pace of things....by 2035....I would imagine over 200,000 Americans being there.

Chief draw for the Americans?  One season weather (really the rainy season and the dry season), low crime, low stress, and cost of living.

Rotator Cuff Story

 Back around Xmas of 2023....I had a shoulder issue.   After four weeks, I went to the Air Force clinic at Ramstein.  Basically....I could not raise my arm above a certain level, and it hurt like 'hell'.  Getting a restful night of sleep?  Zero possibility.

AF Doc didn't think it was a rotator cuff injury but didn't really test things. I get pain killers.

Month passes....no improvement. I go to a German doctor (Tricare covers), and he has no idea....but sends me onto a catscan situation.  Technician views the scan....we talk.

He says 'yep'....rotator cuff injury.  I wanted to avoid surgery (typically recommended).   He says....go to your local gym 'geek', and get advice on weights/stretching.

'Karl' (my German gym tech) takes me to one single machine, and tells me 3 ways of using it with my shoulder.  

It's a rough year, but I am probably 90-percent recovered and have 90-percent use of the shoulder. 

Financial Piece Worth Viewing

Worth viewing on bank spiral approaching.

My View of Ramadan

 Back around 2015....I ended up in a German language class (maybe 18 folks).  Of that...maybe seven were Islamic men (Syria, Iraq, Tunisia).  Four of us were either American, Asian, or African. Rest were Islamic women.

So we came to this period of time for Ramadan.  About the 2nd day of this....I could see four things developing. 

First, concentration among the Islamic guys drained out quickly in the first hour (5-hour class per day).   For those unaware....Ramadan lasts about four weeks.

Second, as much as the guys were consumed and dedicated.....to refuse drinks (even water)...it was obvious that the women hydrated in some secret fashion...without getting seen.  I'm not blaming anyone or rating out any lady....but it just seemed obvious.  

Third, avoiding 'smokes' is part of the game....so by noon (last hour of class)....this being summer.....they had not smoked in almost 7 hours.  These guys were aggravated and without any patience.

Fourth and final....the key rule of Ramadan.....you are fasting to the extreme...from sun-up to sun-down.  Dehydration? Yeah....I would imagine they were all suffering badly by the 3rd week of this.  

So if you asked me...in a shop or business....this four-week period is a highly dangerous period, and likely older Muslim guys die for the 'cause'.

Q-and-A

 1.  Would I buy a E-car (like a Tesla)?

NO.  I keep seeing these garage fires....where the e-car  was recharging and fire started up.  Here in Germany....I even notice the E-bike fire coverage.....where some gal had her bike in the apartment hallway....recharging, and flames started up.  

Now, if hydrogen (H-cars) come along.....I'll check out the deal.

2.  Who gets the Nobel Peace Prize for Russia-Ukraine?

Well....it wouldn't shock me if they gave it to the Saudis or sitting in the room and talking Ukraine into accepting the initial deal.  They can't possibly give it to Rubio or Trump.

3.  How far has air travel 'fallen'?

Back in the 1980s/1990s....I considered any air travel as special.  It was a uplifting experience.

Around 2007...I had my first 5-star negative experience while.....'stuck' in NYC.  If I count all 3-star and 4-star negative experiences since then....I'm up around 15 crappy experiences.  

On almost every trip I take now....when flying....I have some time devoted to plan-B circumstances....if the flight fails.  I'm supposed to go to Hamburg in 2 weeks.....no flight planned.....just a 3-hour high-speed rail adventure. 

4.  Will  Diddy ever leave prison?

By the time they finish......I suggest that he's going to do well over 50 years of jail-time.

5.  Former First Lady Michelle Obama launching a weekly podcast?  

Yeah.  Keeping her name out there, and possibly running in 2028 (my guess).

6.  How many journalists have a background or knowledge level in economics?

My humble view?  Less than 2-percent.  So when some of them get  to  talking over business or commerce....I tend to mute the talk.

Fake Protests?

 There's supposed to be a anti-Elon and anti-DOGE protest in DC this week, and it came out yesterday.....they could not get enough unpaid protesters to show....so they are paying them.

Going rate in DC?  Forty dollars an hour.  I assume....four to five hours a day....so you could collect $250 per day. 

Who has the cash?  Unknown.  I watched one interview....journalist asking pay-scale, and the response.  (Here)

Three days of pay?  Yeah....by Friday....the guy will have cleared in the range of $750 to $1000.  Reported  to IRS? I doubt it.

Could you make this a profession? Well....you'd have to line up weekly protests.  I guess you could clear $8k a year....if you were hooked up to five or six organizations.

The problem here...CBS,  NPR, and CNN have film-footage from the protest, and act like the fifty-odd folks there  are true-blue protest folks....when really....they were paid.  News value?  Well....I'd say zero.

Five Conspiracy Theories That I'm Starting To Wonder About

 1.Is Epstein dead?  This was the biggest 'help' in decades for Mossad, and they would not allow him to pass on.....so  I suspect a made-up fake-Epstein died in the cell.

2.  Is the real Ghislane Maxwell in a federal pen?  I'm starting to question that she'd be stupid enough to be found in Bradford, NH.  

3.  Tren de Aragua gang members.....I'm beginning to wonder if political donations to various prosecutors/sheriffs....are allowing them to freely 'operate'

4.  I'm beginning to wonder....if 99-percent of Joe Biden's signatures were done by auto-pen....starting from day ONE.  If true....nothing is legit.

5.   I suspect this Crooks-kid (the first Trump shooter)....will eventually lead back to a Ukrainian operative.  Just a wild-crazy thought.

How A NGO Works

 You wake up and decide that you want to make  fantastic sums of money, with no risks.

So you write down a plan to have a sanctuary for elephants...quantity of five (Marcel, Woody,  Helga, Pinky and Wanda).  You write the paperwork to show they are residing in South Africa.   You get a picture of five regular elephants, with some helper-guys.

Then you create a name for the 'charity' ('Greater-Good' is a decent name).  You bundle up $5k as a political donation to some House Democrat.  You tell him that you need a USAID package....mostly for $3-Million in 'loot'. 

In clear conversation....you let him/her know that of the $3-Million.....at least 10-percent of the 'loot' will funnel back to him in Act-Blue donations over the next year.  

You set up a bank account in South Africa.  You put some 'elephant-helper' down as as the chief....paying them for a side-hustle. 

You apply to USAID with the paperwork, and the $3-Million arrives.  You slide $300k toward Act-Blue for your 'sponsor', and you convert the remaining $2.7-Million and turn it into BitCoin....then fly into the Bahamas....converting it into cash.  

If anyone ever asks....just say your five elephants were kidnapped by some tribe, and you spent the money on a elephant-detective.  

A Fraud Story

 This AM....I was going through at least 300-odd stories, and this popped-up.

DOGE says....the found this bundle of loans....adding up to $312 million, from the US loans during the COVID pandemic....involving 'kids'.

What did they mean by kids?  Well....11 years old or younger (when the issuance was done).

Who approved this crap?  The Small Business Association (SBA).

How many total?  They figure around 5,600 loans (2020/2021).

Lacking These loans, distributed in 2020 and 2021 amid the global COVID-19 crisis, lacking documentation.

What happens?  I'm guessing 'dad' ('Uncle Elon) will send out some folks, and 'Wanda', 'George', and 'Micky' will end up with a fed guy at the front door.

Kid's age now?  All of  these were 11 or younger......so it's possible that they might only be 12 or 13 years old at this point.

The average here?  Well....'Micky' probably borrowed around $55,000....assuming each was in the same level.

What may have happened?  I would suggest one of three scenarios:

1.  'Micky' has no idea what happened, and his dad submitted the paperwork under 'Micky's' name. In that case.....dad has to cough up the $55k or go off for a year of fed-prison time.

2.  Wanda saw what dad did....to get $200,000 for his business....got up at 2AM, and filled out the same paperwork, and got a check from 'Daddy-Joe' then spent the $55k on Barbie stuff.

3.  Hector (from Nicaragua) got some data....did a fake request, and got the check himself for $55k.  

The worst scenario?  You discover that a whole class of 10-year old kids (twenty-four of them) had this as a class project to just learn how to fill  out forms, and then actually submitted them....each getting $55,000 two months later.

You might want to note.....this is ONLY for people under the age of eleven.  There's a second Elon group....12-to-18....which they are working on, and it could be a bigger deal.

The 20-Percent Story

Over the weekend, I read through a US Army story.....where they did the analysis, and agree....over 2024....they have an issue where 20-percent of recruits signed up and in the Army....end-up leaving/exiting by the  2-year point (way ahead of the contract).

Reason?  They avoided discussing this part of the story....it's  purely a numbers issue and story.

If  I were to speculate?  Since 2020....the Army had to lighten  the standards....to get people to sign up.  So they changed the dynamics.

You could have past drug issues....saying you were cleaned up.  You could have a lesser IQ, and they'd accept that.  You could have fitness issues or serious weight issues....they'd waiver that. 

I read a 'rant' about a year ago....from some Army NCO....where he'd had to paperwork two individuals for release.  One had behavioral issues....not able to work as a team-member (questioning authority).....the other had IQ-type issues (reading and comprehension was below what the Army could handle). The 'rant' touched on the man-hours involved, and that the Army had wasted hundreds of man-hours to get them through boot-camp and some type of occupational training. 

A trend that could harm the Army in the end?  Well....you would think they'd learn from the trend, and go back to recruitment....adding a test or two....to avoid problems.

But this brings me to the non-Army world....where you run a grocery, or handle HR for Wal-Mart, or hire young folks for a tire-shop.  Are you likely getting 20-percent of potential failures as well? 

And if the national trend is to produce 20-percent 'losers'....what does it say about the future of the US, and it's work-force? 

List of Things

 1.  The last Canadian thing I bought?

Some Canadian-produced maple syrup in 2017.  It was overly expensive, and I still have the bottle on the shelf (half-full)....used for only special waffles.

2.  Three movies I can watch over and over?

Along Came Jones, It's a Mad, Mad, Mad World, and North By Northwest.

3.  The amount of patience I have to sit in a Baptist church sermon?

About eight minutes worth, 

4.  My trust in watching/believing Fox News?

Over a one-hour period....I probably will hit mute at least five times (minimum of two minutes at a whack).

5.  Times in 2024 that I drunk a Coke-Cola?

Three. Back in 1979.....it would have been in the 400-range.  

6.  My immediate reaction when some political figure turns on a fake southern accent? 

I mute the rest of their talk, and generally distrust the person on a permanent basis.

7.  If I were in charge of day-light savings-time?

I'd end it.  If you have some hankering to keep it....add it to LGTBQ-DLS and let people know that you not only need special pronoun 'help'....but time 'help' as well.

8.  Minutes of Alex Jones prior to 2020 yearly?

Maybe 60 total, per year.  In the past month....maybe 100 minutes per week.

9.  Number of episodes of SWAT I've watched since 2017 (8 seasons)?

One.  Also the number for Baywatch.

10.  My interest in watching NFL games?  

Zero....it's been that way since 2012.

11.  My philosophy over UFOs with flashing lights?

No stupid alien would add disco-lights to his craft.....just more things to break.  So it's a fake UFO.

Something I Noticed

 Wall Street Journal piece....brief, but their 'fact'....somehow, the Biden folks running the FHA mortgage program added a regulation of some type....which gave you as a bad-off home-owner with a loan situation you couldn't pay....'relief'.

So the Trump folks stumbled into this in the past month.

Number of people who should have defaulted and failed?  One-million roughly from day one, to the general end of Covid..

This went on as Covid-help, and as Covid ended....the 'help' continued on.  The figure presently discussed (2025)?  300,000 (more or less).

Broken down state-by-state?  No....and that was something that I think would help people better understand.  I suspect (no evidence)....that it's mostly larger metro-areas where this is noted.

Fixing this?  No one has interviewed the Trump folks on how this is going to evolve now.

Things I Now Believe Will Occur

 1.  November 2026....Minimum of 20 seats in the House flip to Republicans.  

2.  California....will find for the rest of 2025....no effort to cover fire losses with fed-money.  Trump will deny them funds until they agree to clean up voting registration and agree to some ID requirement to vote.

3.  We eventually learn that the total manpower (civilians and military) for Ukraine, lost in the war.....total over 600,000.  We will also learn that one-million Ukrainians living outside of the country.....have no desire to return..

4.  China will pursue 'selling' over 100 freighters to a Panama company....to avoid additional fees established by Trump for 'docking' at US ports.  We will eventually learn that while the CEO is an existing person....the seven board members are all non-existent.

5.  At  the end of twelve months of 'duty'....Marco Rubio is noted as the second most accomplished Secretary of State....in US history.

6.  Hunter Biden is arrested and charged-up (fresh and different charges).  The Biden-pardon goes to the Supreme Court....where by the summer of 2026...it's determined that it's non-functional.  At the conclusion of Hunter's case.....he's given a two-year prison sentence.  Trump pardons Hunter on the 30th day....if he admits all the cash flow to rest of the Bidens.

7.  This DOGE check that is often mentioned in the news?  Talked about at $5,000 a adult?  In the end....toward November (Xmas-season)....the check will end up being around $4,000.  It's more of a gift toward the Christmas season.

8.  Some California grocery stores start limiting customer entry by the end of 2025....to only customers with a active credit card. If you shop-lift....they will stop you at the door....charge your card, and add a $100 handling fee for 'lifting'. 

9.  At least 3,000 products will be identified as 'made in Mexico'....when in reality....they are made in China, and shipped with the 'M-I-M' stamp on the product.  

10.  The number two Trump-assassination guy will be shown to have made almost 100-percent of his income over a 4-year period....from Ukraine.  The organization paying him? I predict it will be related in some fashion as a USAID organization (charity-based).  None of this will make sense, unless you regard USAID as a friendly-criminal-front.  

Something To Ponder Upon

Columbia University went and did a pretty serious study....coming to this conclusion: ONE-HUNDRED-PERCENT of all teenage school shooters in 52 years were on an SSRI antidepressant medication.

Not 99-percent or 95-percent, or 90-percent.....ALL were on prescribed medication.

Path to violent behavior?  Yeah.  Homicidal thoughts?  Yeah.

Anything to occur now?   I doubt it.

Could Alberta (Canada) Become a 51st State?

 Well....there's a delegation of Alberta folks (non-governmental) who are visiting DC today, and talking over things.

To size up Alberta?  It's 2.7 times the size of Oregon, with a population of 3.6-million people.

Better positioned Canada province in terms of the economy?  Yeah.

Some US rule to allow entry?  No.  You'd have to have a Alberta vote....probably more than 70-percent of people....to get this even openly discussed.  Canadian gov't allowing them to leave?  I doubt that. 

But it's simply another sign that folks are fed up.

The 'Audio-Visual-Club' Story

 So....there in the late 1960s...at Bitburg Air Base (Germany).....someone noted that it was nearly impossible to get color TVs at the BX (AAFES).  To be honest, there were a lot of electronic gear that simply wasn't sold by the BX.

So....someone approached the Wing Commander and suggested that he allow the base recreational folks run a 'club'....audio-visual in design....to sell new gadgets.  He signed off, and in a matter of weeks....they had a demo-area set up and a couple of civilian spouses were sales-people.

Based on who is telling the story....in a matter of a couple of months....the BX  'boss' felt it was unfair competition (the base recreational fund was getting the profits....not the BX).  The wing commander didn't care....folks were happy, and consumers were getting what they wanted. 

The BX empire in Europe then went to the Air Force Headquarters and the four-star.   Again....it was unfair competition.  The general.....as the story goes....asked the BX why they couldn't sell the same gear....at  the same competitive price.  

By this point....most all air bases in Europe had a audio-visual club going on.

The BX  folks?  Well....they went into competition and tried to match wits.  It was almost like you had a bunch of 50-year old guys in management who could not recognize the era developing.   

So by mid-1970s....if you walked into a Ramstein, or Rhein Main....audio-visual  shop....you noted that they had a real LP section....a camera section....tons of stereo gear.  The BX folks....always 3 or 4 steps behind.

In 1978, as I arrived....I found the audio-visual shop at Rhein Main to be an interesting place.  Over a two-year period....I probably bought fifty albums. 

By the mid-1990s....the BX finally reached a point where they had the right people and the trend was in their favor.  The audio-visual clubs began to fade.

It reached a point in the mid-90s....in the vault I worked....that we engaged for about an hour about the competition fall-out, basic economics, and how the BX lagged so badly.

As long as you exist as a sole-source 'player'.....you don't care about competition, or developing new trends.  In the 30 years that the audio-visual clubs  existed....I don't think they had a real 'big-guy' strategy on trends....whatever came next, was simply accepted (they moved on).  The BX folks?  They couldn't maneuver that way.  If they did see a trend....it took a full-year to re-think the strategy....get orders in, and reach a new stage of competition.

As the BX maturity level evolved, and they erased the competition situation with audio-visual....another new era evolved....internet purchasing (Wal-Mart, Pennys, Amazon, etc).  

Around the 2008 era....you could guess that 50-percent of Germany-bound GI's were ordering and picking up via the post-office.  The BX had lost another competition battle.  

Retread TV Show Chatter

 I read today....Netflix intends to do 'remakes' of 3 1960s shows: 'Time Tunnel', 'Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea', and 'Land of the Giants'.

By early 2026....all three will start to show up.

So....from 'TT'....I've seen all thirty episodes.....one time only....from 1966, and I was addicted.  

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea....of the 110 episodes....I've probably watched forty of them.

Land of the Giants?  Of the 51 episodes....I've probably seen half of them.

Why bring these back?  I suspect they are running short of ideas.

My thoughts?  Well....I could see all three brought back....maybe eight episodes each, and maybe even lasting a 2nd season.  If you asked on my hokey-index....Land of the Giants never made  sense.

But I'd like to see Dark Shadows, and Planet of the Apes (the TV show) brought back.  

The 'Show'

 As a kid...I grew up in a time when local pro-wrestling on the TV every Saturday afternoon, and I tended to watch.  

In my later years (the Air Force era of 1981-1984)....I got cable TV in the barracks, and would watch Texas/Louisiana-based wrestling.  

It was always a simple theme....good guys versus bad guys.  

You needed a theatrical show....as realistic as possible.  The weirder the character (like the Great Kubaki, Andre the Giant, or Junk Yard Dog)......the more charged-up you got.

I look at the Trump era....as bringing in all these weird elements,  and  turning it into a evening show.....where you walk in....get through supper....open a beer, and turn on the TV to find out what Rubio has done today, or what Vance dumped on some poor CNN journalist, or what Kash said to the dimwitted MSNBC moderator.   Trump?   He's got a white board in the back of the 'stage' and  writing a whole week's worth of attention-items.....to keep you thrilled.

The Democrats?  Well....they've never encountered something like this.  There was the eight years of Obama, but they were mostly attempting this at one-quarter speed....throwing two or three highlights out each week.  Trump's crew?  They have probably sixteen highlights a day going on.

Appealing to black voters?  I can guarantee you....each evening....they are curious about what Elon has done....if Trump bashed Senator 'Pocahontas'.....if Vance has whooped Ukraine's Zelensky once again,  or if that Kash-guy has laid out the JFK-killing.

Democrats trying to get another theme or message?  It might take five years to figure out a strategy and counter this mess.  

Humble View of Trump's State Of The Union Speech

Five observations:

1.   If you were a media 'unit' (a news guy, a podcaster, a newspaper)....the speech wasn't for you.

2.  The content/theme?  It was for the farmer who'd lost respect Washington DC politics.  It was for the lumber sales guy who needed some dose optimism.  It was for the nurse who'd pulled a 16-hour shift and heavily disgruntled about bureaucracy in America.   It was for the hotel clerk who needed some morale-booster.  

3.  For the Democratic machine.....you need to find a theme/message/brand to deliver into the public that has nothing to do with anti-Trump-chatter.  You need to clear your agenda of present-day, and start preparing for a massive vote-problem in November of 2026.

4. At this point....no one remembers Joe Biden....he's ancient history.

5.  Social Security needs to confirm the dead people problem, and if 100,000 non-existent people are getting a check from them. Hint, there's a national ID card coming in six months....via Social Security, and you will have to present some real evidence of your ID.

My Snacko Era

 In my final couple of years in the Air Force....I volunteered to be the vault 'snacko'...meaning a duty to stock a refrigerator and sell sodas/snacks.  This was a group of 40 folks who were my 'customers'.

I developed this tactic of knowing the commissary system...where discounted items (sometimes one-third off) were offered. By the sixth month of operation....I was easily making $180 to $200 in profit on a monthly basis. At the end of each month...I'd run a free burger grill operation..

So one day at the base quickie-mart....at Ramstein...I turned the corner and here was a pallet of 'Michael Jackson Mystery Drink'.  

Basically....a heavy caffeine tea 'juice' was the wording on the BX card.

They were offering a case for 32-cents a can. I figured....what the hell, and bought a case for the snacko operation.

 Thirty days into the mystery drink episode....zero had been bought.

I decided one day to open a can...taste....and walk around with the can in my hand.  Taste? Just a crappy ultra-sweet tea.

The case sat there for most of a year.   I sold a total of two cans out of that experience.  

The end came....expiration date on the cans.  I popped the top of the remaining cans and dumped all of them....for a loss. 

Humble View of the Zelensky 'Visit'/Screw-Up

 Five observations:

1.  All of this  was talked over back on Monday (Rubio comment).  It was clear then....you arrive....friendly chat....sign the rare minerals understanding...no US participation in the ground situation or peace force....no entry into NATO.  

Zelensky flies in....has breakfast with some Senators,  and seems pepped-up to get a  alternate deal at the White House.  Takes about 15 minutes for Rubio to realize  the guy has a totally different plan.

2.  I don't think Trump will meet face-to-face with the guy again.

3.  Lot of chatter in Ukraine....impeachment chatter.  I kinda doubt that Zelensky is President by the end of March.

4.  Europe worried?  Well....they have no cards to play anymore.

5.  The war is over....it may require a month to clear out the fronts....but it's got no more possible thrills.

Three Things That Don't Make Sense To Me

 1.  I was sitting and reading on car purchases this week, and the 96-month car loan came up.

Yeah, a car loan arranged to cover eight years.

You are basically talking about a guy buying a $80,000 car....probably with no more than $2,000 as a down-payment.

In my mind, I'd ask....what car would last eight years? Along about the fifth year....I'd have trust issues.   Along about the sixth year....I'd probably be spending $4k to $6k on repairs each year. 

It makes no sense.

2.  Lets imagine that 1,500 guys went off to Epstein's isle, and 500 of them were drugged-up at some point....knocked-out.....with photos taken  of them with some 13-year old girl....in a compromising situation.

So you (Epstein) later show the guy the pictures and say....you know x-amount of information on 'something', and my 'people' (the Mossad folks) want that information.  You will provide it.

So in the end....Mossad knew something of value that they used to trade or use for themselves.

If this is the end-story of the Epstein stuff....who exactly is the real 'bad-guy' here, and what exactly are you going do about it?

3.  The more that this Epstein discussion continues....it makes me think that the FBI 'wandered' into this mess at some  point....brought Epstein around to their 'side'....making him a double-agent.

Who they cared about?  Not Hollywood folks, or scientists.....they wanted political figures.

So there might be two 'Doctor-Evils' in this scripted situation. 

The Thing About the Hundred-Odd CIA Guys/Gals Dismissed

 As you read through the material.....they were actively (probably spending two hours a day) on some internal server area....chatting about sex.  Might have been various levels of stuff....that were fairly weird or kinky.

So you get the call....dismissed....last day of work.

You go home...making calls...only to discover that no one in the DC area is hiring. By the weekend, you call your parents....letting them know that you might be coming home for a while.

What you figure out by the 30th day....virtually no one is hiring.  The $30,000 in credit card debt?  A problem now.  That $75,000 in college loans?  That's a problem too.

By day 75....your parents are trying to help you get a pharmacy-clerk job....which you refuse.

The ten CIA folks who were your 'chat-buddies'?  Same boat....none employed.

Your dad comes up around day 104....saying he can get you on with the 'plant'....$22 an hour.  You accept the deal...just shaking your head.  This is a straight 40-man-hours a week, and occasionally they ask you to work an extra eight over the weekend.  

Thirty years will pass....you will still live in the parent's house, and still working at the plant...remembering how great that CIA job was.

What Really Happens When The Full Epstein Client List Is Released?

 Well....you get a list of about 2,500 names (my humble guess), and about 80-percent of the names....you will recognize.  I expect it to be 95-percent male....5-percent female.

Over the course of the next seven days....these folks will be quizzed, and 99.9-percent will say they just spent three days on the isle...drinking and conversing.  A couple will admit they had physical relations with some Hollywood actress, or some  4-star singer.

Then some guy will admit....he was drugged-up, and woke up....not remembering anything, but later was shown a picture/video....of him with a 13-year old girl or boy.

Then this guy will admit he was blackmailed by Epstein, and that it led back to some Mossad people. So he provided insider info to that group.

So about three months will pass, and it'll be apparent....the Mossad folks....using Epstein....arranged a lot events.

The one odd name that might show up on the listing?  Larry Silverstein.  If you see his name....then you might want to ask more questions.

Ten Things I Believe

 1.  Before the end of 2025....members of the House J6 Commission....will be before a grand jury, and explaining their version of things.  Some 'facts' won't match up.  At least three members will resign.

2.  MSNBC will re-invent itself....mostly as a news service, with zero political propaganda.

3.  The US and Russia will have various trade deals worked out by the end of 2025.

4.  The Epstein island business will lead back to rogue Mossad ex-agents....begging the question how close they were with the Israeli gov't.

5.  At least 100 CIA employees will be charged with soliciting deals with Chinese agents....because of their unemployment situation.

6.  I suspect that if you lined up 100 government service workers,  and asked them for 5 minutes to write three accomplishments for  last week....only about sixty of them could do it.  From the remaining forty....a quarter would spend an hour arguing with you that it's not their job to  respond to such a request...a quarter would respond they don't remember  last week (indicating alcohol drug issues), a quarter would have to ask co-workers what they did, and a quarter would start an effort but get side-tracked and waste two days writing the response.

7.  I'll predict by the end of 2025....more  than 12,000 former gov't employees (let-go)....will be hired as private security for grocery stores across the nation.

8.   We will discover that  4,000 NSA employees were sex-chatting on gov't man-hours....on a gov't internal (secure) computer system.

9.  At some  point, the DOGE folks will determine that over 1,600 abortions were performed....on trans-women, and the federal government in some way....paid for them.

10.  When the Diddy list comes out.....we will find that forty NBA players were among those 'guests'. 

The White House 'Bug' Story

 So what is said....a different type electronic 'sweep' occurred. The comments lead me to think it's not the Secret Service....maybe it's a commercial company.  They picked up a different type of frequency near the desk (oversized).  So  it's been removed and it'll be analyzed.

My humble guess?

First, it's  likely a bug that was embedded.  They will drill out the suspect area.

Who? Well....once you have the bug....the brand/model will come into play.  Probably a customized bug....leading you to no company.

CIA?  FBI?  Mossad?  FSB?   Chinese?  Brits?  Former Biden crew?   CNN?  I might have a list of forty-odd folks.

Then I'd suspect whoever did this bug....probably has another dozen bugs around the entire White House....so there's going to be a massive 'drill' to take place.  And it'll be repeated every single week.

But I'll add this one suspicion.....that this was a low-frequency bug, and it probably needed a bug-dump to someone who walks into the room.  Figure here....it's someone 'trusted' on the Trump-staff, or the cleaning-crew.  

Crazy crap?  Yeah....planned out.  Once they knew he wanted the over-sized desk....they went to work to design a special bug.

Humble Thoughts

 1.  What's to be found in Fort Knox when Trump and Elon arrive?

All of the gold on the inventory sheet is there. But folks will be talking about it for a week.

2. USAID had around $4.4-billion spent on houses for Haiti.

So far, the audit can determine six houses finished. Beyond that....nothing.  Where the bulk of money went?  Unknown..

3. Trump-team is laying out conditions for California to get fire-money ($40-billion range). 

Some chatter says the California Costal Authority.....has to be dissolved....as one of the conditions.

4.   Some House member is pushing for drug-tests on all House/Senate members.

Anyone's guess how many would fail in one year.  The rule should be.....30 days of rehab mandated, and no voting ability in that 30-day period.

5. I have this odd feeling.....ATF will not exist by the end of 2025....Alcohol-Tobacco-Firearms?  Folded into US Marshalls....my bet.

In Case You Were Wondering About Wealth

 You can only gain wealth through eight methods:

1.  Busting your balls for forty-odd years.

2.  Start a monopoly.

3.  Get into insider-trading or futures-trading.

4.  Politically pay off people to get special access.

5.  Plain-old-fashion-fraud.

6.  Invent something unique.

7.  Inherit it.

8. Become a professional wrestler.

9.  Run a circus-like MEGA-Church.  

10.  Open an island, invite stupid people to visit, and blackmail them.

My Advice To The 500 FBI Agents 'Deploying' To Huntsville?

 Late Friday, the new boss of the FBI gave the order....1,000 of the DC FBI-centered agents....must leave the shadow of DC.  Of this 500 are heading to the science-lab center in Huntsville, Ala, and the rest will be dispersed around the US.

So my advice....if you made it to the 500-list for Huntsville.....your position is safe.  You shouldn't grumble, or say any criticism whatsoever.  

You shouldn't complain about summer heat.

You shouldn't hype any criticism of Bama football.

You might have a case to grumble about the limited airport facilities, but you can always use Nashville....only two hours away.

You will be able sell your DC property, and find a equal or better property....for half the DC price.

This tornado warning business?  Lets be honest....maybe in a three-year period....there's one single warning that puts you within 5-miles of a track. 

Lets put things in prospective....you will find the science of crime being developed in Huntsville's center more interesting than what goes on in DC.

Life just got a boost up....if you ask me.

Five Things I'm Not Understanding

 1. President Joe Biden went off almost every Friday to the Delaware beach house. He stumbles along along to the chopper...then half the times on Sunday evening....he arrives back with an entirely different walking style.  You notice over that next couple of days...he's mostly coherent.  The  Friday comes....he walks in a reasonable fashion to the chopper....leaves....returns on Sunday....with the weird walking style, and is fairly incoherent for a week.  It's like there were two Joes existing and being occasionally swapped out.

2.  The rumor is...President Trump is going to pursue some kind of audit over three Senators.  I doubt that they will be cooperative, but lets say in the end....all three for a decade have twenty-five-odd futures 'betting' (on the stock market) and they were highly successful in ALL 25 situations, each.

To have a perfect record in futures trading?  Nearly impossible.  So the honest thing for Trump to  then do....send the SEC investigators in, and legally challenge the three to explain how they reached their strategy.  

Each would then profess lobbyists 'helping' them, and this would turn into a bigger mess (likely leading to  Black Rock).

3.  Epstein Island.  Over the past two months....I've viewed twenty-odd podcasts and they all basically weave the story that Epstein was totally connected to Mossad, and this was an intelligence-gathering and 'manipulation' operation.

So the question to me.....was this real Mossad-Mossad connections (operated by the Israeli gov't).....OR was it outsider-Mossad (faked-up) and just convincing Epstein that they were Mossad when they weren't.

Then I start to wonder....everything gathered in this manipulation....was it data sold in some internal market?

Or does this just lead back to the Israeli gov't, who invested in their own 'game'?

4.  With all this LA fire business....we seem to get daily reports of massive incompetency built into city and state leadership....like it's a collection  of 5th-grade kids who run things.

Is it intentionally designed to be a Micky-Mouse-operation?

5. Finally, some polling has indicated that the front-runner for President in 2028 for the Democrats....is former VP Harris.  Mayor-Pete was in 2nd place.

How is this possible?

This Approaching Era

 I was watching a podcast last week....discussing gov't workers being laid off...housing explosion being noticed in DC-region with homes being listed for sale, and the question....what comes to the bulk of these workers?

If you were a non-DC worker....you were probably making $30k range for a GS-4, and in the GS-11 level of $60k.  Manager?  GS-12/13?  $72k to $88k (starting out).

If you were a DC worker at GS-12/13? $94k to $116k (starting out).

Where you can find a job in that range today? Well....if the economy were booming....you could find work in places like Texas (some degree).  

In the downward economy of today?  About 95-percent of folks  are looking at a 30-percent pay-cut minimum....maybe even 50-percent.

Can you sell that Arlington or Fairfax home for $850,000?  NO.  You probably will take a 30-percent cut in that 2024 value.

If you were at the tail-end of a 30-year mortgage (the final 5 years)?  Well....you are screwed.

Banks in the Maryland/Virginia region...likely to collapse by the end of 2025?  I'd start to wonder about that problem.  Lets say you assumed ownership because of defaults....where could you market a $800,000 home of 2024 value, but find no one really interested in that value?

Job-hunting?  Those in their 50s and needing another ten years to reach retirement?  They probably will end up accepting $50k jobs.  Some will end up in RV trailers living on the coast of North Carolina...in  some early retirement scheme, and pulling 40 hours a week at some Wal-Mart to get basic health-care coverage. 

Some falling apart....in suicidal thoughts?  I could see that developing rather quickly.  

People arguing with potential HR folks....they want a work-at-home situation and are being told zero-chance of that.  

The folks who have marginal debt and lived already in a owned-home situation?  They will survive and find new work...accepting a 25-percent pay-cut and proceeding on in life.

Depopulation in both Virginia and Maryland?  I would suggest by 2030 (next Census)....that both lose around 10-percent of their base population.  That population being  upper-middle-class?  Well....yeah, that will be noticed by both states in terms of taxes collected. Both will  have budget problems and being drawn into the California/NY state  'trap'.

So here's my ultimate thought on this era....a whole bunch of college-educated folks will proclaim by 2035....there's just not ample work for the degree they 'earned', and a fair number end up in craftsman  or industry jobs...paying back college loans and grumbling the mess they got themselves into.

If Trump Assumes 'Control' Over Washington D.C?

 First, it'll be legally challenged by the mayor/city council.....however, the text of the original understanding says that the federal government has ultimate control (funding) and that they are allowing local management.

So I would go and suggest three things very likely to unfold quickly: (1) everything east of the Anacostia River (roughly one-quarter of DC) reverting to Maryland, (2) everything west of Rock Creek and Potomic Parkway (the far western one-third of the whole district, to include Georgetown)....also goes back to Maryland, (3) Trump likes to renames things....so I think the District of Columbia would be renamed 'New Columbia'.  

For what remains?  Trump might offer up a Constitutional Amendment....saying that one electoral vote will be added for the region (minus the farwest, and the Anacostia region).  

As for daily management?  I think he will agree to a commissioner with a two-year term, with a 2-star general to head police and fire protection (under the Corps of Engineers).  

Locals shocked?  Oh yeah.....this will  turn into a massive legal fight.

Humble Observations

 1.  All this Trump-Elon chatter about a 'tour/audit' of Fort Knox.  They seem pretty determined now, and it begs the question....do they know of some missing gold?  

Just getting pretty weird now.

2.  Curious, Delta is saying it'll pay out $30,000 a passenger....in that Toronto crash....if you agree not to tangle with them in court.  Just makes you curious.

3.  We are living in an era when you get halfway into a news article, then you halt to realize....it's fabricated (faked-up).  

4.  Crazy talk.....IRS to lay-off 6,000 folks by Friday?

How Social Security Screwed Up

 The chart to the right...is Elon's listing of people getting Social Security.  So for the first 8 rows...it's probably 95-percent 'correct'.  Then you get to around the 100-to-109 age group, with 4.7-million.  At best....there might be about 500 folks....so  you know  it's  off.

The 120-129?  You can be sure....it's zero, but they are obviously paying 3.5-million folks a check.

So how?  

It comes down to two things.....death announcement/certificates, and the people at Social Security failing their job.

Re-use of numbers?  Well....NO.....their policy is not to re-use them.

The two folks between 240-369 years old?   I suspect it's purely a typo. I don't think the age is correct, period.

These listed for 150 years old?  I'd suggest from the first month of existence (August 1935)....there were some 70-year old folks working, and paying into the system.  A  year or two later.....they passed on, and the death was never noted.   Check was mailed out....the postal guy noted 'Gus' was deceased...check returned.  At the Social Security return office....they just never updated the system.

The development of automatic deposits?  That occurred around 1975.  I would imagine for at least 20-million dead folks....they had a second account that the family knew nothing about....the death was missed, and sitting in that bank account today...is a three-quarters-million (if it started  in 1975).

Can they get the money back?  Well...one-by-one, yes.  But you'd need at least three-thousand folks  working on this, and figure at least three years of time to finish. 

This amounting to a couple billion?  Yeah.

Weekend Chatter

 I watched a Sunday morning talk-show clip....Marco Rubio....being interviewed by CBS's Margaret Brennan....where in the middle....she (Brennan) asserts that assertion that free speech in Germany in the 1930s caused the arrival of the Nazis, and the Holocaust.

Rubio pauses in the answer, and then blasts Brennan.  'Made-up' history crap.

You know....in the past 20-odd years....there were so many idiots who were hired by Presidents....that half of them would readily agreed with Brennan.  Rubio is ultra smart and more than capable to answer questions.

As for the arrival of the Nazis?  If you look back at treaty signed by Germany, the UK, France and the US....the reparations demanded by the victors....is the entry-door for the Nazis to be in position in 1929....to  benefit from chaos of Wall Street. 

Free Speech? By the mid-1930s....after the arrival of the Nazis...it was gone.  

How a Fraudulent Scam Using Gov't Funds Would Work

 Lobbyist group 'X' comes to exist, and has twenty companies supporting them.  Figure around $700-million in faked-up costs and the federal gov't  pays the 'bill'.

So the lobbyist group is paid $400-million.

Out of this, 10-percent ($40-million) is the cost of running the lobby organization in DC (building, operations, salary,  leased cars, paid lunches, booze, etc).

Another 10-percent ($40-million) goes to the Senate/House support staff.  This is to ensure the Senator or Representative goes by the script.  So you might funnel a $20,000 weekend trip to Vegas, pay a private golf membership club deal, pay for the staff-members daughter to attend Duke University, etc.  

Another 10-percent ($40-million) probably goes to the government agent who funneled the contract to the right company.  He might get a bag of forty gold-coins, a cash-card loaded with $10,000, or an exceptional low-interest house loan via a friendly bank. Maybe there's a private jet trip to the Bahamas for the agent and his wife every August.  

Another 10-percent ($40-million)would funnel off to the Representative/Senator himself.   Maybe you'd arrange for their wife to get a charity-operation executive job (say $150k a year), or arrange for the Senator's girlfriend to have an apartment in the DC area.

Finally, you have the big-pot to handle campaign donations.   You pay some TV station to ensure super-positive comment.  You pay a PAC to help.  You rig donations.  At the end of the campaign....if the Congressman has a $150k debt.....you arrange for special friends to pay the debt.

The funny thing....is that it's the gov't money funding all of this crap.  You can figure that almost all of the House and Senate members are tangled-up in this, and getting some type of 'gift'.  

My One Trip To The Kennedy Center

 This week, the Kennedy Center (in DC) got into the news.  Basically, President Trump dumped the 'manager', and brought in a new guy.

The new guy asked the budget-folks what's in the pot, and they responded 'nothing'.  Even in the maintenance pot....there's zero.  What they can show....the top-level  of the crew....for the past couple of years....had a fantastic salary, but could not make the Kennedy Center profitable.

I've been  to the Kennedy Center once in my life....back around 2012.

I went to a musical showing of Madam Butterfly.  

The Pentagon recreation folks had these discount tickets.....I still ended up paying around $75 for what I consider a nose-bleed seat in the top balcony.

I got there early and being from 'Bama'....I surveyed the facility (meaning I checked out the bathroom and it was 5-star).

Around the halfway point of the show....they paused for a break.   As I tried to exit the  balcony area, and this hefty older gal...probably in a tight evening dress....did some kind of fainting spell.  Some other gal....about 10 feet away....then seemed to sway a bit and seemed ready to collapse. At that point....I felt 'faintish'.  

To be honest, the story-line of Madam Butterfly didn't seem to thrill me, and the faint-business was starting to worry me.  

I decided....enough.   I left at the half-way point.  I took the DC subway home.

What's going to happen to the Kennedy Center?  I'm going to predict that the culture crowd....all bothered by Trump taking over....will refuse to offer crappy musicals, or leftist fits of rage, and the Kennedy Center by the end of 2025....is mostly closed down.  

To be honest, if you consider the local feeling for culture....you are better off with NFL football, or professional wrestling.

The Weirdest Angle Of Revealing?

 With Trump saying he's going to put the truth out....what's the weirdest angle that we might expect on:

1.  UFOs

- We discover there's only one single race of aliens, and they are marginally brighter than humans.   Over 70 years....we've only taken one single craft of theirs apart, and figured out the technology....mostly in the last five years....due to some guy coming in on weekends...named 'Elon'.

2.  9-11:

- We discover that Bin Laden was not the chief source of 9-11....that it was a CIA-group and a Saudi-prince who developed the attack, blamed it off to Afghanistan.

3.  JFK shooting

- We discover that JFK was on the verge of firing almost all of the top-level  of the CIA.   

4.  Covid agenda

- We discover that the plan  to develop  it occurred around 2008-2010, and it had more to do with getting a large segment of society inserted with nano-probs/bio-engineering than anything else.

5.  Epstein agenda and guests

- A Mossad operation from day-one, and over 500 guests compromised in some way. It was mostly to get financial information to bet on the future's market at Wall Street.

6.  Expenditures/Musk/Big Balls

- We discover that since 2008 and the increasing-factor of spending....relates to massive use of cash in the Fed for fraudulent lending, and fraudulent 'grants' to benefit only Democratic projects. In the end, we add up the numbers, and half of almost every single budget...was wasted.

Just a Story I Will Admit

 After I retired from the military, I spent around twelve years as a contractor....working hand-in-hand for the same military organization I retired from.  I worked for Company-X.

Things were fine with Company-X, for about six months, then the new contract had to be worked up. By the end, our company took a lesser contract.  It was a 'win', but on yearly salary/benefits....we all took a 3-percet 'cut'.  At that point, I lost respect for the contractor situation.

Five years would pass, and we'd re-compete once again....this time, Company-Y won.  Company-Y was fuc*ed-up to the maximum and they anticipated that all of people (currently in Company-X) would slip over.  

Well....no, once they laid out the pay-scale/benefits....maybe 10-percent of the people stayed.  

Me?  I ended up staying, and taking a 15-percent pay-cut.  The single-plus-up?  Well....they gave me seven days of sick-leave each year.  The sick-leave disappeared twelve months later.

So in my vault area....there were just two of us from the old team....with 12 empty positions.  

Company-Y had forty resumes.  They passed them to my military boss (a GS).  He came to me and said....pick.

I sat there mostly amazed.  He didn't want to waste an afternoon doing this.

So I  sat there with the one remaining Company-X employee....a female, and we discussed the 're-build'.  

Typically, the old company was pro-guy...meaning if they had four positions open, they hired one single female. That was the HR-tech side of things.

I eventually went and did something 'crazy'....I racked up the resumes (forty of them), and found 15 of them were female.  Of the 12 positions....I filled two guys and ten women.  

I figured my GS boss would catch this and say something.  No....he didn't.  

About six weeks later......they began to arrive, and the rest of the vault came to notice....an overwhelming female presence.  

Yeah, I rigged it....but no one from HR or the hiring authority grasped my prioritization. 

Three Crystal Ball Predictions

 1.  In about two to three weeks....someone is going to call the Mayor of LA (Bass) and simply say that Elon Musk's plane is landing in LA in about an hour.  She will call out her secret 'spies' to follow Musk.

So about two hours pass, and the 'spies' report back.  Musk is in the burned-out part of LA, and talking to locals....a lot of locals.  They will note that he's brought five or six of his 'get-it-done' young prodigy people (the Big-Balls crowd).

Six hours pass, and the 'spies' report Elon has departed.  

A day later, Trump will announce that the mayor and  governor are failing.....the federal gov't is stepping in, and a team of Big-Balls geeky guys are putting the fix-it operation in place, with federal marshals protecting them.

2.  Governor Newsom will approach Trump in late March to say that all the Latin American construction workers have disappeared because of ICE.....so he (Newsom) wants Trump to approve entry/work-papers for 30,000 Chinese  construction workers to enter the US....to get the job done.  Trump refuses, and instead offers Mexico 10,000 permanent work-permits.

3.  Finally, an audit will be done over the California high-speed rail....showing it has no real study done prove it would ever be used.  The project will quickly die-off. 

The Kiseki Man

 This past week....Japan's Prime Minister showed up in the US, and pledged $1-trillion for US investment purposes. 

Yeah, it's an awful lot.

So I pondered over this.

Japan has this term they use in describing a battle or assassination attempt.....where a massive effort was made....lives lost, and yet it was a failed attempt.  

In their mind....if you tried to kill someone and it failed....the person (surviving)...has some type of unforeseen destiny now attached.  They are no longer a mortal man.  The term?  Kiseki.  

This would be the description attached to Trump.  

Japanese folks attached to  the term 'immortal'?  They have a word which loosely translates to immortal....but it also means 'undying' and 'imperishable'.

I won't suggest that they are a bit crazy over traditions or legends, but they do attach a status to things....which goes beyond the norm.

The trillion-dollar gamble?  They seem pretty sure.

This Trump - Afrikaner - South Africa 'Solution'?

 Well....for those who haven't followed South Africa....in the past month or two, the country finally signed off on on the Expropriation Bill [B23-2020].  It basically says when the gov't  feels like it....it can take (without payment) farmland, orchards, vineyards, and 'redistribute' to locals.  How the locals are determined?  Unknown.

So...Trump came out and said this agenda is unfair, and that if you intend to expropriate....you have to pay off the 'hurt-party'.  South Africa probably freaked out when they read that comment.

Trump's next reaction?  Treat the Afrikaner folks (the whites) as refugees, and ease them into the US.

Who are the Afrikaners.  They are a Southern African ethnic group....descended down from predominantly Dutch settlers....who came to the Cape of Good Hope in 1652. 

Population?  2.7-million were listed from a decade ago.

Would I divide them into three or more status groups?  Yeah....you have the farmers who are still doing well financially, and haven't seen their farms taken.

At the bottom, there's probably around 300,000 in a welfare class and having trouble.  

So if they are granted refugee status?  My humble view?  I think he will sign off  on 300,000 being resettled into the US (in 2025)....with at least six to ten jumbo 747 (400 pax) per week.  

As for where they end up in bulk?  Well....I'm guessing districts that are marginally 'owned' by Democrats today, and in four years...would be less 'owned' by Democrats (like eastern Oregon, eastern Washington,  upstate Michigan, and southern Georgia).

Crazy scenario?  Absolutely, and only by South Africa reversing it's take-property concept...would it stop.  

Just plain white (Dutch) refugees?  Yeah, that's the amazing part of the story.   Their loyalty to Trump?  It would be awful intense.

A problem for CNN to explain why it's racist to deny Afrikaners?  Maybe.  

Humble Thoughts

 1.  It kinda hit me yesterday....back in November....I voted for the felon-guy, the hillbilly-ex-Marine, the mad-scientist-turned-rocket-geek, and this kid named 'Big Balls'.  

It was a overwhelming feeling....like I'd assembled the Avengers to go off and save something.

2.  Amazing....paper straw mandate gone.  Plastic straws back in fashion.

3.  Crazy stuff out of NY City.  Apparently, with all the ICE business going on and illegals evaporating....suddenly, the 'rich'  have a problem....their marginally paid maids/nannies are gone.  I get the impression....the 'rich'  weren't really that rich to start with.

4. Some report came up.....over a interview with a US government employee....he had some 19-year-old DOGE guy engage him in a 15 minute interview....basically to “justify their existence.” After that....there was a fire/no-fire 'X' written down.

Personally, I think the story is BS.

However, if you are a US gov't employee, and you really don't have more than a 3 inch by 5 inch card of information about what you do....you probably don't have a real job.

5.  On taxable income and refunds for 2026?  At this point....whatever your tax bill is for spring of 2025....I would imagine Elon's crew will cut around 30-to-50 percent of governmental spending.  So if  your fed-tax bill was $7k....next year....you might want to expect this to be in the range of $3.5k to $4k.

But here's the thing....all this Elon magic going on...is aimed at the fed-level.

What if Trump sends the audit team to states/cities, and says....your fed-funding ends unless you agree to allow Elon's audit crew to view your cash flow?

Well....that $10k you pay for property tax,  state income tax, and crazy local fees?   That's likely to dissolve by 50-percent.

So, I'll predict....Elon's audit folks get deeper into the mess in 2026.  

Five Things I Kinda Noticed

 1.  If you were a business or farmer, and had a dozen illegals as your main manpower....for ten years, and never paying them legit wages, or covering state/federal taxes....you might not want to admit this in public, as to explaining why your operation is in failure mode.

2.  If you follow Chicago news....the backers/donor folks have kinda started to exit the Obama Presidential Center project.  

3.  This week....reading through the WaPo business section....I'm rather shocked to learn the economy is in a spiral, and appears awful fragile.  Just odd...four years of signals and never any questions, and now they'd like to lay out problems.

4.  Just odd....in Nevada this week....the state admitted more Republicans now registered to vote....than Democrats.  It's been over 20 years when that last occurred.

5.  Trump signed off on giving Israel the 'ultimate' bunker-buster bomb.  This is the type that you'd drop on a target that will bust a 20-ft concrete wall at 100 ft in the dirt.  Begs the question  what exactly they will be engaging.

This Trump-Chatter About Term-Limits

Trump said yesterday....he'd like to push for a term-limit situation.  It wasn't detailed and you have to  wonder what would be included.

Wondering how to deliver an amendment to the Constitution?  The system says that an amendment may be proposed either by the Congress....with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate,  or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures. 

I should note here...by the second method....none of the 27 amendments to the Constitution have been proposed by constitutional convention.  It's highly unlikely.

What I see as the tactic?  All of 2026 will be consumed by Trump chatter....pushing for a massive GOP-win  in November 2026, and forcing out of any Republican who won't sign and pledge to the amendment.

The enticement?  I think he'll include the Supreme Court, and all of the federal judges in the situation as well.  For some Democrats....they probably would  be pleased.

How this might be worded?  Simple text.....12 total consecutive years as a House/Senate member.  You leave for a minimum of 4 years, and you could run again. 

For the Supreme Court....once in place....you are limited to ten years.  

I'm also of the mind....an age text inserted....to say you have to resign/retire by age 70....as a judge, House member, or Senator.  

Odds of passing?  Unknown....but it won't come up until January of 2027. 

Do I Believe Most Gov't Workers Taking Trump Buy-Out Will Retire?

 The number mentioned at this point (nationally) is 40,000.  Some people believe by the end (say mid-March)....it'll be near the 80k to 100k level.

So, I will suggest this....the bulk of them are in the age 50 or above....so they are mostly looking at the use of their TSP (gov't IRA) age use (55 or above), and they will market their house....going for some cheaper lifestyle. 

If they live California....they will up and leave.  If they live in the DC area.....the property will  be up for sale in March.  

The folks who are in their 30s to age 54?  Well....they will test the market, and I imagine that they will think there's jobs out there....still in their price-range.  Most, after 6 months....will grasp that this idea is crazy, and they will have to accept a 30-percent pay-cut.  Some FBI folks are probably finished....and will be looking at a teacher's job.

Some mental syndrome developing?  I would take a guess that 5-percent will be seeking some mental stress help by mid-summer.  

Time-Blindness?

I watched a piece off social media today...where a 20-something year old gal....noted that she was interviewing for a job, and had asked the HR-'Boss' if they understood that she had time-blindness.

What she meant?  Well....she didn't really obligate herself to a clock. If they expected her to be at the desk at 8 AM....her time-blindness might prevent that, and she might be there at 8:11 AM, or 8:30  AM, or possibly even 8:45 AM.

What she wanted....was compassion from the  'boss' (some understanding).

She didn't say what the reaction was.  It sounded like this job-interview didn't go well.

It sounded like she had a disability situation....or at least she wanted you to respect her time-blindness.

Punctually-impaired?  Yeah.

I don't have a problem with a person who is tardy once a month (say 15 to 20 minutes), and their story is reasonable. When it's a 3-time a week event, and the story is a simple 'I-woke-up-late' saga....it doesn't work.

As for the employment future of this gal?  Over the next forty years....I don't think she will move up much, or be considered for management positions. 

Three Observations

 1.  Yesterday, I watched the 54-minute CBS-interview of VP Harris (in the entirety). This is the one where 60-Minutes cut-and-pasted their way to limit crappy moments.

I'll just say....either she had three or four shots of something prior to this....or she has some mental disability.

So I'll just say it....when Joe Biden selected her....he had to know that she had 'problems', and this fell into his game plan.

2. ALL of the CIA's  work-force were offered exit deals.  Whether or not they all take it?  Unknown.  

3.  Somewhere in all this money-trail stuff going on....Elon's crew discovered that around $8-million was spent on research....to determine the effect of flavored cigarettes on bisexuals and lesbians.  

Yeah, it must be important....but I've yet to figure why.

Finance Chatter

 Good  financial report by Ric Bender.....talking about reality (finally) in the job market (crap, and probably was crap for a year or two).  Worth watching (9-min).  One obvious thing....if you were a gov't employee...hoping to leave and find new non-gov't work...2025 is not your year.

Bank Stability Discussion

 First, I'd recommend the three video-reports to view:

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2025/why-some-of-americas-banks-are-at-risk-of-failing-cnbc-marathon/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/list-failed-banks-2009-2023-170005906.html

https://www.americanbanker.com/list/4-banks-that-will-be-in-regulators-hot-seat-in-2025

Second, one of the better podcast folks who daily does a piece, and discusses banking problems...is Dan over at:

https://www.youtube.com/@IAllegedly/videos

Third, the commercial property issue (malls, stores, restaurants)...where no one seems willing to take them on (or buy from the banks)....STILL exists.  Banks hold the keys to the properties since owners gave up on leasing them out or selling (even if the pricing was half of the normal value).

Fourth, I noticed in the last day or two....Canadian banks are randomingly coming up and just telling folks....your account is to be closed.   No mention of reasoning.  Maybe there's too much debt?  Unknown.

Fifth, first bank failure of 2025....little discussed....but it was Pulaski Savings  Bank of Illinois.  FDIC says they had to pay out around $28-million to cover individual accounts.  Buyer for the bank?  No problem.....after FDIC covered the accounts.

Sixth, what barely got mentioned in the news....FDIC is taking around 17 executives of the Silicon Valley Bank (remember the first BIG failure).....to court.  They say the folks were fairly incompetent, and want to seizure funds that the folks have in their accounts.  Wishing them luck, but I suspect all will claim they were being deceived by 'someone'.  

Seventh, about a month ago....Franklin Street CEO Andrew Wright....did a talk and basically said....the big banks 'have no more runway to extend and delay the massive amount of real estate loan maturities'.  He didn't say a month or quarter....but that bank real estate crisis has to come and be dealt with.

Eight, I noticed two weeks ago....ALL-TIME high level of people paying just-minimum level on credit-card debt.  People are carrying around an enormous burden (car loans, credit card, insurance, home loan, student-loans, etc).   

Ninth, I'll point this out....the 4th largest bank in the US in 2008...was Lehmen Brothers.  At some point, the Bush folks made a decision that some banks could be saved....and Lehmens was too far gone to save.

I see this attitude likely to repeat....with at least one or two big banks (with connections in a large way to commercial real estate on their books)....being sliced up and sold to lesser banks.  The commercial property situation?  Wouldn't shock me if the US gov't takes possession and offers some public sale.

You might see mall with a 2020 value of $30-million....going to half-a-million.  Course....you'd be stupid to buy something with huge property tax issues, and limited ways to lease out the property or maintain it.

In the end, my general advice to 'survive' this mess?  Two things, remember the FDIC insurance is limited to $250,000 per bank. If you are exceeding that amount....go to some credit union, and move the excess to some savings or CD account.  

Second thing...for  the most part....credit unions seem relatively safe.  

Finally, if your knowledge over the 1929 crash is marginal....one book I recommend is 'The Great Crash' by Selwyn Parker.....written in 2008.  Prices at $2.99 on Kindle Amazon.  

There's also a excellent book that talks over the Florida  'land-boom'  of the 1920s....that led up to  the banking collapse....entitled: Florida Land-Boom of the 1920s, by Gregg Turner.  It is pricey on Kindle (around $20).  If you weren't aware....a lot of individuals went out and speculated....OVER and OVER.....getting hyped up during the build-up. 

The Thing About Bank-Runs

 I spent a fair amount of time in 2019/2020....reading various books over the 1920s, the Wall Street collapse in Oct 1929, the bank-run, and the depression-era of the 1930s.

What I had zero knowledge  over....was the bank-runs.  It made no sense.

So after reviewing a fair amount of data....I came to three observations.

1.  Banks up to this point (say 1929) had  zero oversight, So if the bank books said $400,000 existed in the vault.....they assumed the books were correct.

Over the years (decades)....various people (from the clerks to the bank Presidents)....took liberties to 'grab'  a twenty, or perhaps even a thousand....to pay a personal debt, or engage in the land speculation business of the early 1920s.

So you might have a bank with only 80-percent of the book amount existing.  Some banks were exceptionally bad.....some were marginally bad.  

Once the 'wave' started in 1929....banks saw the bank-run business as a problem....they couldn't square things up with both private members and business members.

2.  So we come to the limit business.

Banks figured that if you  told them new rules....folks would feel happy that you denied them their  life savings (say $2,000)....if you agreed they could take out $40 a month.  

The problem is....if you were a bicycle manufacturing plant, or a brewery....you needed to meet your payroll once a month....say in the range of $5,000.

It only took one or two months....for the banks to realize that no one was bringing fresh new cash flow into the bank.  It was strictly out-going.

3.  The Fed coming to save the banks?  No.   There are various reasons given to why the Fed was marginally helpful....but in the end, they were assuming that the banks weren't in that bad of shape.  

The bank-run laying out the path to the entire 1930s?  Once you established the fact that the banks could not be trusted....you prioritized things to acquire a safe for your company/business, and cash-flow to banks dwindled.  

Why I say all of this?  Well....at some point this year....you will see a bank-run in Russia.  Trust will dissolve over a couple of weeks, and people will put themselves into a cash-only situation....refusing to deposit any cash-flow.  You being a Russian company and trying to pay workers?  Things will rapidly dissolve into a mess.

Putin's value to commerce or working-class people?  If a grocery store won't accept anything but cash...trust will dissolve pretty quick.