What I Got Out Of This Verdict Business

 1.  If ever called to jury duty....in the selection process, I'll state that I'll only participate if the Judge's instructions are printed out and handed to me in a physical form.  If the answer is 'no'.....I'll respond I'm identifying as deaf-dumb-blind.

2.  I would imagine within seven days....Trump picks up around half-a-billion dollars of campaign funds.  On the next key day, where sentencing occurs (July)?  There's likely to be another round of donations....in the half-billion range.  

3.  Blacks now identifying themselves as 'left-the-Democrats'?  I sat and watched about a dozen Twitter pieces where black men and women readily identified as former-Democrats or former-Biden-supporters, and they now see Trump as one of them....damaged by the crapped-up justice system.  I would imagine just in the NY City and Chicago areas.....you flipped half-a-million black voters overnight.  By July, I think in Illinois....it's possible that it flips now to 'red' (for Trump).  

4.  On appeals (only after sentencing)?  Just within NY state....half of the convictions are thrown out.  As they approach the Supreme Court?  All of these charges/convictions left....will dissolve, and many journalists will be sitting there and asking....what exactly was the court 'show' all about?

5.  If I were an employee of the FBI or Justice Department....I'd pull up my resume  and start asking headhunters....where can I find work in January?  Those feeling secure?  I might ask how my mortgage for a home in Arlington or Fairfax will be covered.....if I suddenly get relieved and 'let-go'.  There's to be a fire-sale atmosphere in February/March of 2025 in the DC region....houses probably going for 30-to-40 percent off the 2022 price scale.  FBI agents ending up at the Georgia ATF agency, or working for some state beverage-control shop? Yeah, and agents taking a 50-percent pay-cut.

6.  Hunter Biden and 'team'?  I'd start to wonder about spring of 2025.....if a new team arrives with fresh prosecution goals.  I probably wouldn't stay in the US.....likely planning some exit to Central America or some African country.

7.  Efforts to control the campaign by Joe Biden's crew?  If you lost half the black voting block....you got serious damage.

Word Chatter

Just a funny footnote....legal system is getting rid of the word 'criminal'.

In the future....you will utter 'Justice-Impacted-Individual' (JII).

Next up?  I would imagine jail will go away, and Temporary-Holding-Facility (THF) will be used.

Down the line....'fat' will go away....'stupid'  will disappear, and 'crazy' will be replaced.

 

The 'Show'

 Is the Presidency of the United States....more of a TV show, than some 'act' of political reality?

Back in the middle of the Clinton era....I started to think over things like this.  The whole sex story over Clinton came down to some comical discussion, and how no matter how many women Bill might have banged on the side....Hillary was just never going to leave.

From that point...even with the Bush era, the Obama period, and the four years of Trump....I felt that way.

With Joe Biden and VP Harris?  I've probably tripled  up my belief that it's more a TV show than anything else.

Faked-up drama?  Oh, there's not a day that passes now when you think this more of a 'Young-Frankenstein' comedy directed by Mel Brooks.

You can flip channels from MSNBC, to the View, and over to CNN....where you get comedy 'skit' number one....an hour later....comedy 'skit' number two, and so so.

The trouble here....after a while, you get the mindset that it's all a comedy.  Even the journalists are part of the act....the economists are actors told to read a script, and guests of the White House (like Macron of France or some Icelandic PM)....are also part of the act.

The odd factor?  Everything feels like a scam.    You listen to five minutes of CNN....skeptical of everything spoken.  You read a piece of the NY Times, and scam comes up once or twice by the end.  You have some talk-radio piece....where you start laughing over the pretended serious nature of the topic.

As for any indicator that the Joe/Kam 'show' might end, and the 'Donald-show' might start up....leading to another comedy?  Yeah, I even have that feeling.  To be honest, I think even the CNN people would be happy and rejoiceful because it'd improve their comedy 'score'.

Man, it makes me wish for that Gerald Ford era once again....where they barely mentioned his name once a week.

A Little Funny Story

 

I sat and read over this story.

Basically, after reviewing data/facts....court concludes that the Covid tests done....only came up with a accurate reading about 3-percent of the time. 

If you had a dead guy (dragged in from some car accident, hay-bailer incident, or thrown from a horse)....for some reason, you'd be Covid-tested, and your death certificate might say Covid-victim.....when it was purely a car accident or farm-death.

So all these official deaths talked about in 2020, 2021, and 2022....it's crapped-up results?  Yeah.

Here in Germany....they were perked-up to mandate PCR tests, and openly offered FREE tests in each village.  At some point in 2021....to get non-vax people into the work-place......you had to openly take the PCR test almost daily....meaning a trip to your village station and the gov't was paying around 20 Euro ($24) for each test.

A ton of money wasted....with millions of man-hours wasted?  Yeah.

I was probably PCR tested at least 60 times over a 2-year period myself.

Just something funny how society developed around the fake tests, and how skeptical folks are today.

Recessions and Their Necessity

All total, from 1776 to present.....we've accomplished (on the books) a total of forty-nine recessions.  Yes, it may be hard for some folks to accept but the odds are....if you are fifty years old today and will likely make to 75 old years old.....you will have lived through ten recessions. 

While folks do agree on the lengthly recessionary period of 1929 to the summer of 1938....being awful bad, it officially....on the books....represents two recessions.  Yep, that's a shock for most folks.  We actually started to come out of the 1929 recession in the spring of 1933.  There is some brief moments (months) where people perceive things improving.  But by spring of 1937....recession was back in full bloom, with two major factors: companies were stalled (seeing no real profits), and there was a massive attempt by the federal government to balance the budget (which overwhelmed Senators).

The recession of 1873?  No one ever goes back and discusses the five-year period where unit strikes and bank failures were regularly discussed in various newspapers. 

Should we fear recessions? No.  They are often tied to poor money management, bad decisions led by speculation, and insiders trying to gain against a market.  They are in a way.....a corrective period which needs to be like a 'magic pill' to flush your system, and get the 'bad' out.  You feel better after the flush, and that feeling will typically last five to fifteen years....before the next recession. 

The odd thing right now?  We are told that the last recession ended in the summer of 2009.  If you figure a 15-year cycle, then we are five to eight years away from this next 'flush' cycle.  The necessity to blame Trump on the next recession?  Right now....it's a 99-percent likely event.  But it's quiet possible that the Trump period will end, and we get a year or two into some Democratic period.....waking up to realizing speculation reached a major point and a flush was necessary.

Virtual Discussion

 The DNC has said now that they will hold some type of meeting and approve a 'virtual-vote' by Convention members....ahead  of the actual convention itself (to be 19 to 22 August, in Chicago).  The 'virtual-vote'?  To nominate Joe Biden/Kam Harris.

This apparently resolves the Ohio-problem....where a deadline is in place (by state law), and the state refuses to modify the law.....so the 19 August business would fail to get Joe on the Ohio ballot.

I sat and pondered over this.

This virtual-vote would likely occur by early July, with state delegations having provided an ID of members, and some form of email going out....with a password and instruction of how it would work.  

My humble guess....it'd be open and vote-enabled for three days (probably over a weekend), and you'd have a virtual chance to vote for Joe/Kam, or a blank area for a write-in.

So the question in my mind...what if 51-percent of the delegates say NO to Joe/Kam?  In this scenario, I think the DNC would huddle for an hour after the vote and then say that the vote was 'hacked'.  

Would 51-percent readily say no?  I think out of 2,000 delegates....it might be easy to find 200 agreeing, and maybe another 200 who feel uneasy.  Joe and Kam ought to pass.

But lets say the virtual vote is only 44-percent for Joe/Kam....meaning the bulk are against them.  What follows for the next six weeks?

CNN, WaPo and NPR would be working daily to stir up passion and list the three or four 'fillers' constantly.

I'll end this discussion with this....if the virtual vote work....why bother with a convention?  Why not just have virtual conventions as the norm in the future....with no one traveling 1,000 miles for a week of political partying?

Fast Food Luxury?

 I noticed a poll done....where 80-percent of Americans now consider a stop at a fast-food place (like BK, McDonalds, Wendys).....as being a 'LUXURY'.

I sat and pondered over this. 

As a kid....around age 7....McDonalds finally came to my local town (20,000 residents), and it was a big deal if the family were stopping there.

About four years into the era....the 'big-deal' dropped like a rock, and we in some way....were stopping there at least once a month.

In the first five years of my Air Force period.....I probably used a fast-food opportunity (to include the base bowling alley)....around six times a week.

I peaked at some point....where I preferred a real sit-down restaurant experience by the late 1990s.

Ever since Covid?  Well...I might stop once a week at a fast-food shop.

Here's the thing....there were tons of these operations built and they were geared where society was using them more than once or twice a week.  If you say they are luxury....then you might as well start tearing half of them down.

Something weird is starting up, and it just begs questions....how will the landscape look in twelve months?  What else will be a luxury (ice cream, a Pepsi, sitting in a movie theater)?  Are we sitting in a 1929-like era? 

Condo Chatter

 Over the past four months, I've probably spent 40 hours reviewing the condo crisis in Florida.

To put this in prospective....ever since the collapse of that one condo....Florida politicians have been on some crusade to ensure nothing else occurs.

Well...this led to mandates where inspections are noted officially, and repairs are now mandated.

So the associations (HOAs) are in some proactive situation.

Basically, you may have bought the condo for $250,000 in 2018, with a $600 monthly fee, and insurance was 'reasonable'.

Now?  The monthly fee might be getting close to $1,200, and your insurance is probably double to triple (yearly).  Then the other issue....if their bucket of funds isn't adequate for the repairs....they will send you a notice that you have four months to come up with $40,000 (maybe even $80,000)....to pay for the 'fix'.

In simple terms....you can't afford the place, and the value is sinking.  Adding to this....your monthly fee might be near $1,200 shortly....with your pension budget is a spiral.

So you want to escape.

The monthly fee? Well....it's scaring off potential buyers.  The $40,000 check to cover repairs?  That will scare off more people.  The doubling/tripling of the insurance cost?  That will scare more folks off.  The fact that there are double to triple the units on the market?  Yeah.

I would imagine 10 to 20 percent of folks don't have the extra money laying around for the fix, and they are asking the banks to help out, but loaning money to a 70-year old guy makes little sense.  Even I wouldn't be that stupid to loan money in that situation.  

So I will make this prediction....the HOA folks are going to court to 'grab' properties who don't pay the fix-costs.  

Then the HOA will discover from the dozen condos on the property.....that they can't market/sell them.  So they will go to the remaining owners, and let them know.....another check for an extra $20,000 or more....has to be procured from the remaining folks.  Then a second wave of unhappy folks arrives to make a bigger mess.

It wouldn't shock me by the end of 2025....if 100,000 Florida residents have to escape....leaving the state because of bankruptcy, and unable to find new housing other than moving in with the kids or some relative.  

Five Humble Thoughts

 1.  With all this free gift-money that President Biden gave out for student loan debt....just odd....none of the money seems to have changed or improved the economy.  Wonder why?

2.  This Pete Buttigieg guy....should just go home...sell used cars, and talk himself up for President or VP.

3.  At some point in the next year, I expect some college kid to drag his college into court and sue for damages, or lack of educational 'training'.  It's going to shock a few folks....if the kid wins.

4.  Just a gut-feeling....but I suspect in 2025....the Washington Post newspaper will collapse.

5.  I can't really think of a reason to stop at McDonalds and pay $20 for a menu dinner.

What I See By 2030?

 My predictions to occur by 2030 list (I tend to do one of these every 3 months now):

1.  One out of six Americans will openly tote/carry a firearm with them.....whenever leaving the house.  In states like Tennessee and Georgia....it'll be normal to walk into a grocery and see a majority of customers with a weapon.

2.  About 10,000 college instructors will be unemployed because of a downsizing in the college 'profession',  and unable to find stable work.  All due to the feds getting out of the college loan 'business'.

3.  Tesla cars will no longer be manufactured.  

4.  At least 100,000 California residents will have disconnected themselves from the grid because they can't afford the cost.  Some will have a gas generator which they run for an hour each day....to cool the freezer/refrigerator.  The state will openly discuss the idea of charging disconnected residents some kind of $150 a month fee.  

5.  Three-some marriages will be approved in California.

6.  Being obese will be approved as a handicap and will get you early retirement by age 45 under Social Security rules.  Life insurance companies will enter the spiral and readily agree to refuse to provide life insurance to  anyone weighing over 200 pounds.

7.  'Greater-Idaho' will be a reality, with half of Oregon having joined up with Idaho.  At least twelve counties of Washington state (eastern side) will openly discuss after this....joining 'Greater-Idaho' as well.

8.  All US military installations in Europe will have been erased/removed.

9.  Pizza Hut will not exist by 2030.

10.  At least half of all lesbians in the US will openly vow that they are not participants or players in LGTBQ-plus events.  An attempt by 2030 will go with the idea of removing 'L' from LGTBQ-plus.  

My Gut Feeling Over Student Loan Cancellation?

 I see five problems:

1.  If you were stupid enough to go to a out-of-state school, borrow $125,000 to pay for the deal....you deserve to pay entirely out of your pocket for the stupidity.

2.  I think if you measured up the people who are getting cancellation deals by the administration....probably 95-percent are white and working in jobs that pay less than $40,000 a year.  For blacks, Asians and Hispanics....I would guess they are marginally getting the free deal.

3.  All of this....within three years....will lead to the federal government getting out of the loan business, and creating a  massive collapse of the college system without kids having the money to afford the stupidity.

4.  Even if you gifted $15,000 of free money to a stupid kid with a $90,000 loan....if you sit and ponder over the finance side.....the kid is still in deep debt  problems.

5.   The people you really piss-off?  Some gal or guy who borrowed $80,000 back in 2006, and finally paid off his/her loan in 2021....with them looking at the $120k they paid on the stupid loan and how they got screwed over.  There's probably over half-a-million of these people who think about the subject almost daily now.

Selling Jamie Dimon As A Replacement For Joe Biden?

 Speculation has started up....since Jamie Dimon (CEO of J P Morgan Chase Bank) gave notice that he intends to leave 'soon' (not actually saying what soon means).

Dimon running as the replacement guy for Biden at the Democratic Convention?  Well....it's a rumor for the most part.

I sat and pondered over this....coming to seven conclusions:

1.  On talking economics/commerce...Dimon is the 'equal' of Trump, and can convey things in the business front.

2.  Having ever run for any office?  NO.  That is a fairly big slam against the guy.

3.  Keeping most all of the Obama support team in the White House?  That likely is a selling point, but I'm not sure the public favors this idea.  Yes, it is odd that Biden's team is like 75-percent Obama-people presently.

4.  Dimon selling well to blacks or Hispanics, or migrants?  No....I just can't see that idea coming up.

5.  Keeping all of Joe's positions?  Yeah, probably so.

6. Not stumbling around, or telling goofy stories, or having cocaine packets end up in the White  House?  Yeah....that might be a major plus.  All of the corruption stuff, and Hunter stories end?  Yeah, another plus.

7. VP Harris likely NOT to be on his list?  Yeah....I think he'd go and get Senator Corey Booker of NJ to be his VP.   AOC on the list?  Shockingly....yeah....she might be considered as well.

I'm not saying he's a great choice....just that if you threw him into the group of Michelle Obama and Governor Newsom.....Dimon looks five-star.  

The fact Dimon might be leaning halfway to being a conservative wearing fake liberal clothing?  Yeah, that issue will be dragged up a good bit.   

State Story

 I noticed this in the AM today....state of Alberta, Canada....fed up on Canadian 'control'.....will have a vote in late June....to exit Canada and apply for US status, as a state.

BS?

Well....20 years ago, I would have laughed over this and said more than 90-percent of people would vote 'NO'.  Today....I might guess the vote will  be near 50-50. If it were to to go 60-40?  Yeah, that probably would scare the crap out of the Canadian government.  

Alberta being the odd state of Canada?  That falls into play and some would  suggest that 75-percent of locals in the state are Texas-like in mentality.

Size of Alberta?  It's pretty much the size of Texas, with a population of 4.8-million people.

Most of it rural?  Once you reach past Edmonton (middle of the region).....these are all towns and villages of just a 1,000 or less in people.

Would the US even consider such an application (say it was 75-percent saying yes to exit)?  I have my doubts.  It'd mean creating two more Senate seats, and probably two House seats.

But I would say one odd thing....if they vote to exit (in the 60-percent range) and this would go ahead....within five years....I could see another province or two....repeating the vote  as well.  Maybe within 30 years.....Canada as a nation....would not exist. 

As for what drives this currently?  Inflation, housing cost, and continuing regulation-thrills.  You see a lot of people from Canada talking about the cost of living and no ability to afford housing.  

Biden, DoJ, and Concert Tickets?

 Well....this AM...I noticed a brief story....maybe two lines.  The rumor in DC....someone on the President's staff has convinced President Biden that concert tickets in America need 'control'...you know....regulations to limit prices.

If you were to prioritize this?  On most American's minds?  This doesn't rank even in the top 5,000 things to fix or control.

The first ever concert tickets I ever bought...around the 1982 timeframe....in Shreveport, Louisiana....to a Heart concert...for around $12.  For a E-4 in the military, it was a fair  amount of money.  On top of that.....you ended up spending another $10 for beer.

The problem I see here....once you start regulating....why stop there?  Why not approach NFL and MLB ticket prices?  Why should I pay $48 per seat for a baseball game?  Why should I pay $125 for NFL tickets?

Why do I need the federal government in the business of regulating tickets?

Does the President even grasp what's going on?

The 'Show'?

 I sat today and pondered over this....the Biden campaign team announced that they will be holding a TREMENDOUS rally....bigger than anything that Trump has ever held in the past. Where?  They say NEAR the border.

How?

My guess.....it'd have to be near El Paso, Texas....probably the local college stadium....the Sun Bowl....with 51,000 seats.

But how would you fill this?  Well....first you'd have to contract out 300 buses, and attempt to haul folks from four different states.

You'd have to offer a quarter of the crowd....$50 gift cards, and a free lunch/beer on the bus.  

Total cost?  I would imagine near $5-million by the time you rent the field, handle the buses, and set up some type of Roman theater. 

The necessity of doing this?  Well....you will waste $5-million trying to show something that no one really believes.

Paper Straw Crap

 I sat and read over this story today.

I live in Germany, and by law.....you can't get plastic straws...anywhere.  You walk into a Burger King....the straw is paper, and it usually fails within 8 minutes of use to be effective for it's purpose.

So now....you have to worry about chemicals in the paper straw, and that they may out-law it next.

Funny how society evolves, and just gets deeper into crap.

Diamon Story

 Jamie Diamon, head of J P Morgan-Chase Bank.....has given some notice of leaving (shortly).

For reference, he's been there since 2006, and generally regarded after Warren Buffet as the person you listen to....for real vision of how the economy is going.   

What's he doing next?  Unknown.  He has said he's interested in being President of the US.

Could he be the filler for Joe Biden at the Convention?  Well....I sat yesterday and pondered over this.

The day he intends to leave?  He joked yesterday....it's not five years away, as he puts it.

Would Democrats at the Convention accept this filler?  I'm not sure....he's never been elected to anything, and he probably would not agree to half the Democratic Party positions of today.

Just odd that he times it this way.

Teacher Issue

 I sat yesterday watching a Twitter piece....school-teacher...probably in the age of 24 to 27.

She was seeking 'guidance' from the general public on how she can talk to her students (never saying their ages) about her polyamory habits.

For reference, when you say you are into polyamory situations...it means you hang out with various people for hot lusty sex, and a two-person concrete situation isn't really on your mind.  Yeah, for you older guys....it's swinger chatter (stuff you remember from the 1970s/1980s).

As she laid out this conversation problem....my impression over her 3-minute talk...was that she wanted to 'sell' her open character and that students would be hyped-up to hear her conversation.

I pondered upon this....being a 1977 high school graduate.

About two-thirds of all the teachers I had in this era....were ages 50 or older, and their bang-preference or lusty-sex character.....probably didn't seem that important to me.  

Added to this...at least up to the tenth grade, I saw the general purpose of the school business to get across x-amount of education, knowledge and how-to information.  

If you had introduced a lot of sex-chatter and polyamory stuff....sex would have been on my mind 18 hours a day and I would have graduated in a half-ass manner.

So it just begs the question in my mind....all these 18-year old kids wrapping up high school, with hyped-up sex on their mind.....how exactly does this play out?

Parents looking at this 'game', and removing their kids from the school environment?  Well....yeah.  As the schools start releasing teachers because of fewer students.....the younger teachers will be the ones let go.  You know....the lusty-sex chatters.  Where do you go, in this case, for employment?  I'm not sure the work environment has open spots for  polyamory-chatters.  

Why I Think Trump Moved Rubio Up For VP?

 In the past two weeks....I've come to see the logic in Marco Rubio being VP under Trump.

It's simple....he speaks Spanish.

I think Trump is going out after the Convention to sell his campaign in Nevada, Arizona, California, New Mexico, etc.  With Rubio doing key events....in Spanish....I would imagine somewhere in the range of 50-percent of Hispanics will vote for Trump in the fall  election.

Are there better choices?  Yes, without any doubt.  

But no one else speaks Spanish.

This Iranian President's Death?

 I just look at the scenario....couple of VIP guys getting into a Bell 212 Helicopter.....over 40 years old, and one of those frames affected by zero purchases of legit parts...just doesn't make any sense.

I would not climb into one...under any circumstances, but this guy did.  

Going then into a heavily mountainous area, with reported cloud cover/fog?  Again....it makes no sense.

Who I Think Are The Final Three On Trumps VP List?

Whoever is on the final list, and makes it to VP (Jan 2025)....I suspect will be elected in 2028, and 2029.  I also think the person will reform the Supreme Court in some way.....downsize the US presence in Europe....be a key part of the economy rebuild, and be interviewed weekly.

1.  Marco Rubio

2.  Sarah Huckabee

3.  Ron DeSantos

Vivek?  I think he'll end up as a economical reform 'boss', for four years....then be the VP in 2028.  All this budget cutting in the works?  He'll design it.

Tulsi?  I suspect she's set the Pentagon chief.

Byron Daniels?  If Rubio is selected....I think Daniels moves up to the Senate seat to fill.

Tim Scott?  Ends up as Secretary of State for four years. 

Five Things I Think Of The Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

 1.  To be honest, after the 2020 debates (there were only two between them)....I didn't really see a winner/loser of either one.  I will admit....Biden seemed overly pumped up and 'roaring'.....but it just triggered me to assume he was loped-up on some type of drug (either cocaine or Adderall, or both).

2.  How and why this 2024 debate chatter came up?  

I suspect about 10 days ago....there was a meeting (during the week, not the weekend)....where Joe, Jill, a top pollster, and two or three of the top campaign folks sat in a room.

I think the pollster laid out the discouraging news....that the five key states....are now unwinnable, and that a minimum of two pretty sure states (NV is one of them) will likely go to Trump.  Adding to it....there's probably a national trend where 50-percent of blacks, and Hispanics....will vote Trump (something that didn't occur in 2020).  

I think Joe asked....what can we do, and the campaign folks said we need to trip Trump up....maybe by getting him to say 'no' to a debate of Biden's suggestion....then use it for a commercial.  

Their shock when Trump accepted everything?  

3.  Having one debate prior to a Democratic or Republican Convention? 

Yeah, that's an odd thing....has never occurred.

I don't it's wise.

4.  Will the insider crew gift Biden with a high dose of Adderall?  Yeah.  Could you overdose a guy?

Well....here's the five key problems if you did overdose a guy....nausea and diarrhea, panic and confusion, chest pain (like you were having a heart attack), convulsions, and finally....coma.

So 45 minutes into this debate....you shouldn't be shocked  if you notice Joe having some kind of hallucinations or sweating a bit.  If he were to collapse?  Rest  assured....VP Harris is there to step in and save America.

5.  Is this mostly a Biden-versus-Trump debate, or a Trump-versus-CNN debate? 

Maybe you should sit back and be entertained as CNN gets punched a good bit and unable to moderate.

Jungle Book Movie Requiring A Trigger Warning?

 I sat and read a commentary yesterday.....some guy in the US has Disney-Plus (streaming video), and he was going to put up the Jungle Book movie (the cartoon from 1960s) for his kid to watch.

At the very beginning....there was a added 'clip'.....giving you basically a trigger-warning....that you might be disturbed by some part of the cartoon.

I paused over this for about ten minutes.

I've probably watched Jungle Book at least three times in my life and consider it a classic.

Is there anything to be disturbed by?  NO.

If you have such weak moral character and could be bothered by it?  You probably shouldn't exit the house, or work at any job other than stocking shelves at the local grocery.

I don't have much hope for the future if these characters filter out into jobs and government.  Just trying to imagine them as police?  It won't happen.

Gov Newsom Versus Michelle Obama: Biden's Replacement?

 For several weeks, I've considered the Convention replacement idea....that Biden is given the notice that he can't win, and the Convention 'drafts' a replacement....of which there are only two possibilities (Yeah I discounted Harris).

On debate skills....neither measure up that well....but I'd give a point or two to Newsom.

On past experience?  The most you can say over Michelle Obama is that she's been a community organizer.  Newsom?  Mayor and governor skills.

On public appeal?  Newsom will claim various successes but you can't really go and discuss them in public.  Obama?  No failures, but no successes either.

On scandals?  Newsom had a brief affair, and it's known history.  Obama?  Zero scandal.

If Obama is selected....would Newsom agree to VP?  No.  

If Newsom is selected...would Obama agree to VP?  I doubt it.

Someone who would captivate voters more?  AOC, but she's just marginally going to meet the age requirement.  I could see AOC drafted to be the VP to either of these two.

A silly discussion?  Yeah.

Five Odd Things I've Noted

 1.  Someone sat down and analyzed income levels and book sales for President Biden.  What they say....he's having a shortfall of capital....other than his present salary as President.

Where does he spend the money?  Unknown.  It is just an odd story....lessening bank account and no way to show spending?

Someone commented that legal aid for Hunter....was a pot of money that the President was putting cash into, and this might have consumed a fair amount of dad's money.

2.  Some BS report  that White House insiders say if Hunter's legal case opens up....President Biden mental side will deteriorate and he will suffer mental 'torment'.

Not sure why news media actually reported this.

3.  Air Force said this past week.....recruiting crisis has reached a serious level.

Adding to the commentary....the chief DEI officer for the AF hyped-up LGTBQ-month and goals to recruit more LGTBQ-people.

Serious problems approaching?  I'd say by summer of 2025....talk of a 'draft' will start up.

4.  US Army now testing 'long-distance' balloons.  Wonder where they got the idea?

5.  Just an odd story brewing....people who own E-cars and do longer distance drives....say that they suffer some kind of nausea.  Might be BS.....no one has any science or data  to explain this.

If I were just looking at this.....putting 400 pounds of batteries into a closed space....might have some kind of electric field problem brewing.  Would be funny if people suffer health issues because of E-cars.  

What Happens At the Democratic Convention Once Joe Biden Is Replaced?

 After pondering over, I have five humble thoughts:

1.  Whatever deal Joe Biden has with Trump meeting for a second debate after the Convention....is gone.

Doesn't matter if it is Michelle Obama or Governor Newsom.....this deal is gone and Trump will likely say any new debate chatter....has to be with podcast folks only....in a totally neutral situation, at Trump's pick  of location.

Yeah, he will  own the full landscape.

2.  CNN's value after this point?  Boy, I'd say they will have half the number of viewers and be laughed at.  

3.  Joe's energy level for the remainder....as he is out?  Near zero after the Convention.  He might try to invite himself to France or Germany, but I doubt if he does much travel.

4.  Economy going into rapid slow-down?  OH YEAH, that's very possible. 

5.  Migration crisis going  into massive over-drive?  YES.....with full blame upon Joe Biden, and NYC/Chicago asking for $150-million a month to marginally keep support going on.

What Happens On The Morning Of 28 June?

Well....you wake up after having watched the Biden-Trump debate from the previous evening, feeling pretty amused and dismayed.   

First, you will admit it was mostly a debate between CNN and Donald Trump....with Trump pointing out how far the network had fallen.  The Tapper dude?  He will be crapped on in various ways.  

CNN's attempt to defend itself?  A majority of people will see them as a propaganda unit....not a news organization.  

Blacks in a overwhelming majority will agree....it was mostly about CNN trying to get Trump, with the Democratic masterminds trying figure out how they screwed up.

Second, people will have noticed at least a dozen facts that Biden cited.....as being false.  

Third, a series of meetings will  start up and run through most of July.  The main topic?  How can the Democratic Convention quietly and effectively replace Joe  Biden?  

Fourth, the second of these debates?  It won't occur.  After the Convention...whoever replaces Joe....will find that Donald Trump now says fine....but there's only going to be moderators that he accepts.  

Fifth, this VP debate on 23 July (week after the Republican Convention)?  It likely will not occur, and certainly not with Harris.

Oddly, this will be discussed for years....like some Shakespeare-like opera.

(Hint: Don't expect the CNN crew to ask a single economics question)

If I Ran Presidential Debates

 1.  No audience.  Televised live, and limited to no more than 90 minutes.

2.  I'd give the people two minutes to three minutes to explain the question....each with the same issue/problem.

3.  Public allowed to submit questions, and evaluated by 100 people a week prior....assigning a 'grade' to the question and way it's asked.

4.  One moderator to ask the question...as is.  No follow up.

5.  Standing or sitting, up to each individual.

6.  Exact same questions list  used for VP debate.

7.  Immediately after the debate....NO analyst to explain things.

8.  Each person has to identify where Ukraine is on a map....with no names for any country.

9.  Each candidate has to do a 6th grade math word question, and provide the correct answer.

10.  Each candidate has to do a random drug-test.  Results to follow a week later.

Five Predictions Prior To Beginning of 2026

 1.   I'll predict a wipe-out of California fast-food restaurants.....with at least 40-percent  of those that exist today....being gone by early 2026.   The $20-an-hour-wage doing most of the damage.

2.  I'll predict that more than 200,000 Floridian folks who own condos....exit by early 2026, and live out their lives in RV trailers.

3. I'll predict that the average mortgage rate by early 2026 will be near 9-percent.  Meaning?  You will see a collapse of homes valued at 1-mil or more.  No one will be in a position to buy a home, without 25-to-35 percent of a down-payment, and able to show a steady job situation.

4.  A study will be completed to show that 99-percent of adults in America have a valid  ID of some type.

5.  The word 'whore' will be banned from use by the social media folks.  

Humble View of the Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

Four things:

1.  Awful stringent to have only Biden's pick of network, but CNN ends up with the first debate.

I suspect they are sitting there and pausing over how Biden's crew wants them to craft pro-Biden questions and accept hard Trump topics.  I think the CNN folks might be fed up with this behavior, and just say....'screw it'.  

Yeah, they might  toss out half the Joe-questions and shock Joe with some tough questions.

I could see them wanting Trump back in office....to improve ratings.

2.  Should Trump invite RFK to 3 debates on his own?  Yeah.  I'd do all in September....leaving Joe completely out.

3.  If Joe screws up the July debate?  He's out at the convention.

4.  I think the VP  debates now matter....more than ever. 

Explaining Consumer Price Index To A Redneck

 The CPI is a pretty standard 'tool' for economists.  You basically take x-number of goods bought monthly, and keep visiting (repeating) to see if the price has gone up or down.  

Can you rig CPI?  You could but then you'd be defeating the usefulness of the tool.

So to explain this to a redneck....you have a 12 cases of assorted beer that you buy (12 brands).  

You start out at store X and buy one case of Miller Lite for $26.99.  You repeat this process for the remaining 11 cases.  Then you add the numbers up, and you have x-amount for May 2024.

If you were rigging this?  You'd have a list of superior discount shops and buy the beer only while on sale.  In this case, you might find the Miller Lite case....discounted at one particular shop for $24.99.  

You'd then repeat the discount game....to ensure the CPI looks great but at a majority of shops....it's likely to be $28.99.  You skipped them because your inflation numbers would be crap, if you did this right.

Screwed up?  No....it's just the way that you fake people out.  

This Brewing 'Hurricane' Effect On Condo Sales In Florida

 If you pull up real estate sites and search over Florida for condos for sale....it's a huge number listed (way more than normal).  Why?  Well....it leads to odd things:

1.  That condo collapse from last year triggered the state gov't to mandate condo associations actually do maintenance and have a pile of money to cover required 'fixes'.  That meant your association fee, which might have been $400 to $1000 a month....probably doubled.  It also meant that if they found massive problems....they came to you for a one-time pay-up situation...maybe $10,000.....maybe even $40,000.  

2.  Then the insurance industry revised their quotes....in most cases....going up by one-third...but some even doubled their yearly rate.

So 'Hank' looked at his personal mess to clean up and realized.....he doesn't have the savings or yearly retirement income to cover this mess.  Logically, he's got the property up for sale., 

Who would buy into a mess like this?  No one.

'Hank' will hit some point by December....realizing that his savings is being drained and association fee is bankrupting him....so he will declare bankruptcy and hand the keys to the association.  

What can the condo association do with the empty condo?  Nothing.

So from the 240 units of a average condo building...by summer of 2025, the association will probably have 30 to 60 units empty....unable to market them, and now approaching the remaining 180-odd players in the building that they need to pay a higher fee.  How high?  Well...they already saw a 50-to-100 percent rise in 2024.  I would imagine by mid-2025, it'll go to a second 50-to-100 percent rise....meaning a new crew of folks in desperation and talking to a lawyer over bankruptcy by spring of 2026.

The condo by summer of 2026?  Of the 240 units....more than half of the units will be empty, and the remaining folks are now in desperate times because their savings is being wiped out.   Yep, they will be discussing bankruptcy and handing the keys to the condo to the association.  Wave after wave....hitting the market.

Just a ball-park guess, but I would imagine over 300 condo buildings across the state by spring 2027....empty and fenced up.  State trying to size up the property and sell the units for $10,000 (over their current value of $250,000)?  It wouldn't shock me, but what idiot would go and buy some condo situation like this?

It's an amazing economic story to ponder.  All of these had value.....ownership was simplified....association operations functioned as designed.  Then one day....it all failed.

My question?  Lets say that 10,000 owners are in this situation and lose their property.....getting into serious financial woes.  Where do they move and rebuild their lives?  Anywhere, but Florida.  

Five Things I'd Do About Student Demonstrations

 1.  I'd add a line in the student rules......where if you demonstrated on property grounds....we'd call the city police and as you are detained.....you are automatically suspended from the school for one year, with your accomplishments so far in suspended status until the full year is over (meaning even if you transfer to another college....your classes aren't countable in that period).

2.  Non-member of the campus on the grounds?  Prosecute them to the fullest degree of the law.

3.  Zero camping allowed, and automatic confiscation of the tent/camping gear.  

4.  Employees of the school participating?  Tell them on university grounds, it's cause for dismissal.

5.  Creating a disturbance during a class day?  Add a $300 fee (per day).   

Guatemala Story

 I was reading over a stoy of the Attorney General of Guatemala....who is in some type of investigation over child-trafficking of kids there.....into the US.  Nothing is really clear.

But in the middle of the story....they got onto this odd subject.  The US gov't....never saying which department did this....shuffled around $125,000 into Guatemala to pay for the services of Shaman/Healers.

Shaman/Healers?  

In certain remote areas of Honduras, Guatemala and so on....it comes out of the past with the Mayan, Aztec and Inca folks.

They typically would have a ceremony....have some smoke in the air....drink some herbal tea (possibly laced with some stuff to make you dopey), and by the end of the 'show'.....you felt 'right'.

So the question is....how did the tax money ($125k) find it's way into this mess, who approved this idea, and where exactly does it fit into child-trafficking?

You can read the story here.

On my weird index....yeah, it's a solid ten.

Eight Things

 1.  On economic plus-ups to President Biden....he is totally disconnected to plain working-class Americans.  It's hard to imagine this is an election year, and things are so screwed-up....that he can't sell his brand or message.

2  You probably didn't hear, but DoJ is talking to the court over the hammer-dude who went at Paul Pelosi (Nancy's husband), and wanting him to serve 40 years.  

3.  McDonalds says it's going to market a $5-meal.  I would imagine it'll be the 99-cent hamburger with 2 patties, small fries, and small drink.  Over past three years....if I've been at a McDonalds....haven't been able to for less than $12.

4.  If I were a university with 'campers' (people with tents).....I'd respond....sure, you can camp, for a daily fee of $39 (per person). If you can't pay.....I'd ask the police to pick each person up....jail them until they pay the $39.

5.   Something I expect in 2025.....some college 'group' comes up....admitting they read Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' and readily support his Nazi strategy.  

6.  It just kinda hit this past week....Joe Biden himself.....is doing everything possible to screw up the election and the spiral on negativity is currently a big deal.  The economy?  If  he'd brought some special team in early 2023 and said...get this all fixed up, then he'd be out to win the election.  

7.  If someone utters that he's an expert....he's got about 90 seconds to prove his point, or be condemned as an idiot.  Funny how this has developed.

8.  Germany's idea from 20 years ago to dump the draft?  Basically today....deemed almost a failure, and there's talk that the volunteer deal is about to be dumped.

Crazy Talk

 I saw this graphic chart this AM....crazy-people population in state psychiatric hospitals in the US....1950 to 2010.

So my question is this....if the incoming crowd were released....where did they 'really' go?  Out in public, or in prisons?

Did lessening the resident situation really fix anything over a 60-year period?

And the one odd factor....up until 1960, we were still on a upward trend.  Where would the 'mark' be today....if the clinics been kept open?

Heat Story

 Someone brought this up today....actually published around mid-October of 2023.

I sat and pondered over it.  

To be honest, if you had ventured from the Carolinas back in 1825....out to Illinois/Indiana....as a settler, after a single year of living in mid-America, you probably would have said things are way too hot, and way too cold....to live there.

Then as you moved to Colorado in the 1870....you probably said the same thing.

Upon moving to Arizona (Tombstone) in 1900....you would have said the same thing.

If any of this warning BS were true....you'd see scientists at the various universities in mid-America....packing up and trying to get to Oregon or Maine....to survive.  

Yet, you see no one really acting worried.

Money Chatter

 I've spent a fair amount of time looking this graphic chart.

I'm mostly in disagreement about the results.  

First, what exactly does 'live comfortably' mean?  I think in Idaho...I could live pretty well on $50,000 a year (as long as I didn't have a monthly mortgage payment of $1,200).  

A family needing $257,000 in Oregon?  Are mom and dad driving a Mercedes each?

This brings to a WaPo story from around 2011....DC/Arlington couple (both in early 50s).....pulling in around $270,000 a year combined, and living paycheck-to-paycheck....unable to really explain how they spent their way through a month.  

There's something wrong here....but I can't really put my finger on it.

AI Story

 I sat and watched an interview with Bumble founder.....Whitney Wolfe Herd....who got into a talk about the future of dating.

So her idea is that Artifical Intelligence (AI) is very shortly reaching a stage where you would talk to your AI-date-handler, and it would have reviewed 'options' (say 100,000 people)....to recommend 'winners'.

How many questions would have to be asked and measured?  She doesn't say, but I would imagine this is a four-hour interview to reach 1,000 conclusions about your expectations.

If you say it has to be a gal who cooks....knows something about timing belts, is at least 35 years old, and drinks beer from the can.....it might only list four people from the entire state.....then mention that two of the ladies are in the state prison.

To me, the question comes up....would you trust the AI to find the dream-person?

Then you come to the obvious....what if people lied about the 1,000 answers they gave to the AI?

How many filters would a 45-year old guy establish?  Five?  Twelve?  Forty?  

I paused over this...just on myself?  I might have twenty hard NO-GO filters established.  I wouldn't want a cult-gal....someone who constantly wants to walk on beaches...a paranoid schizophrenic....a Amazon-shaped gal who was a former wrestler....someone with ten weird tattoos.....or a Vega-gal.  Environmentalist?  No.  Two-pack a day smoker?  No.  

I would imagine these AI folks would eventually come around and tell you in a blunt way.....you made it too difficult....there ain't anyone that weird to fit your profile.

Economics Chatter

 I saw this today on social media. Burger King pricing going up.

The thing that might bother people?  Well....how would summer of 2025 look?  A whopper being up around $8.50?  Fries being near $4.40?  

This is the problem with the inflation scale....you just don't have a slowing down affect within your line of sight.

Sticker-shock in 18 months....where you walk into a BK...finding the Double-Whopper menu....at $30 for one person?  

Same trend for pizza?  Where you might find a normal $15 2019-pizza....going for $22 today, and in the fall of 2025....maybe $30?

Counting Story

 I sat and paused over this AP story.  What the whole thing boils down to....the state of Califoria is reaching a point where they would NOT be able to complete a vote-count for probably two months.

Not able to finish by the time that the Electoral College convenes?  More or less....that's the case.

In fact, you could have lawsuits preventing the state from progressing until the ballots have been counted not just once but maybe twice.

Preventing an Electoral College ending?  Yeah, you get that impression.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Demonstrations On College Campuses

 1.  Having seen some of the media interactions/interviews with the riot-players....I question how bright they seem....if attending college, and would ask.....is it possible to get a refund on your tuition if you are that 'stupid'.

2.  Looking at the destruction elements....at the end, someone has to clean up the mess and repair the buildings. This means a cost-factor.  I'm just guessing....for the August 2025 tuition 'number'....go start figuring a 30-to-40 percent increase on tuition.

3.  Trying to stay on this 'topic' for more than three days?  Personally, I just don't see  more than five minutes of interest in a 12-hour viewing cycle.  I'd have more interest with the Braves infield after spring-training, or Biden's walking style.

4.  If you handed a map to the protest-university crowd and asked them to point out the Gaza Strip....I doubt if 5-percent could locate it on a map.

Tuition Chatter

 This past weekend, I was clearing out stuff and came to a 1976 notebook.  

In that fall (I was in the 11th grade)....they had bused us all to some county 'opportunities' day.  Here were five or six colleges....number of trade of schools, and the military recruitment folks.

My conversation with the Auburn/Univ of Alabama folks?  Yearly tuition was $1,500...books were $250, and a whole year of room/board was priced at $1,700 roughly.  I wrote all this into the notebook.

The trouble in assessing all of this...I had no idea of a real occupation or path.  

The military recruitment folks?  The Navy guy seemed hyped-up to interest me.  Marines....less so.  The Air Force had me sold but then the pay thing came up....E1 equaled $400 a month (taking out taxes/SS....you made around $300 a month). 

That Friday night came and I spent two hours thinking over this, and concluded on numbers....the Air Force path made more sense.

Funny, I kept the notebook over the years.  

If you tried to price Auburn today?  Year of tuition is around $12.5k....books around $1,200, and room/board near $15.4k.  Then you come to beer, insurance, and extra pocket-money....probably near $8k a year.

An Election Rule Or Two You Might Want To Remember

In the event we pass the Democratic Convention (19 August to 23 August), and something happens to President Biden....to say he's out as a candidate (health issues one might assume)....what happens?

Well....the Democrats are 'empowered' to fill the empty seat, and it does NOT have to be the VP moving up.  In this case, the party chair would have a talk with with Democratic governors and House/Senate leadership.

In this scenario, I believe it's entirely possible that both the President/VP seats would change out.  

States in a position to say 'no'?  There are two states which have ironclad rules about changing the names after mid-August.  So unless lawsuits occur.....there would be two states denying the name change.

The Republican?  If Trump were knocked out? the Republican National Committee has a rule offering a 2nd national convention or itself (the RNC) could select a new candidate.

Am I suggesting an Oswald-like scenario?  No....but if you asked me....how many FBI or CIA Oswalds currently exist in the US....I would laugh and suggest over 100 easily.

If you suddenly crossed both Joe and Kam off the list in mid-September through this scenario?  In a matter of just a month....Joe would be forgotten, and Kam acting as President....would get almost zero media attention.

Just a curious thing to think about.  

The Slacker Generation

 We had a term in the 1970s/1980s in the Air Force....that we used almost daily....'slacker'.

A 'slacker' was a guy (usually) who didn't put much effort into his work, or his life.  This was the junior airman who wore clothing until it had a ton of body order....meaning he washed his clothing maybe once a month.  This was the guy who mostly hung around the barracks.....if they could find a way to get out of work/duty, then they put effort into that....and they rarely did anything worth discussing except watch TV.

Yeah, a slacker was a loser.

So it occurred to me this week....there's hundreds of thousand of these 18-to-29 year old slackers now existing in America.....living out of dad's house, and doing little in the way of progressing or getting ahead in life.

The trouble here?  Well....slackers don't vote.  They also don't date or get into relationships.  They don't get credit cards....mostly because they have no income.  The Democratic or Republican parties having anything to offer slackers?  No.

Are they even interested in leaving or getting a job?  There's no indicator of that.

As this group grows in the next decade....what exactly can any politician offer....to make them happy?

The College Demonstrations After The Smoke Clears

 Ten thoughts:

1.  I don't see any of these ending by mid-summer or the start of fall classes.  

2.  I think these demonstrations will continue through the Democratic Convention and be a major problem for the city of Chicago.

3.  Nationwide?  I'll predict a minimum of 500 police file disability papers because of injuries.  End cost for police units throughout the US will exceed $1-billion for health cost, and early retirement.

4.  At least 300 lawsuits will be created against both private and public universities for failing to provide education and safety.  Some of these will roll through all of 2025, and even to the end of 2026.  Total cost?  Five-billion-dollars.

5.  Tuition upgrades/cost?  Just for this fall semester, I would imagine schools like Columbia (currently at $66k a year)....will move the tuition close to $71k for next year.  The increase for August 2025?  Probably closer to $79k.  

6.  The donation crowd to the big-name university operations?  They will quietly up and leave.  

7.  Several national corporations will make it clear.....they aren't interested in graduates from the affected universities....leaving over 20,000 2024/2025 graduates standing there with limited job prospects.  The Justice Department will attempt to 'punish' the corporations, but find zero respect.

8.  In several southern states, the protest folks will be shocked that their acts got them into a 5-year potential jail-sentence, and the legal help provided.....has little to offer for a deal.  Upon entering state prisons....most will find the educational level of the prisoners equal to their college-level, and ask how that was possible.

9.  Some leaker within the FBI will admit they are tracking well over $100-million coming in to support the demonstrations from Iran, China and Russia.  Congress will ask why they aren't doing anything, with the answer leading back  to Biden's circle.

10.  The question nationally will be asked.....if 18-year-old kids are going to college and coming out four years later....more stupid....why go to college?